The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish the September Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. on October 14, the last monthly reading that feeds into Social Security’s 2027 cost-of-living adjustment. No 2027 percentage has been published by the Social Security Administration, and none can be stated until that report arrives. For retirees under the Federal Employees Retirement System, the eventual figure comes with an additional catch: the law takes one full percentage point off their annuity increase whenever inflation runs above 3 percent.
The distinction matters for retirees budgeting for January. A measured inflation rate, a COLA percentage and the amount of an individual deposit are three different numbers, and only the first of them exists today.
The September reading that closes the 2027 calculation
The Bureau of Labor Statistics lists the September 2026 CPI release for October 14, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. on its release calendar. The next report, covering October, follows on November 10. For Social Security purposes the key series is the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, known as CPI-W.
The cost-of-living adjustment is built from the third quarter of the year. The Social Security Administration’s COLA page shows the comparison base: CPI-W averaged 317.265 across July, August and September of 2025 (317.265 is the average of 316.349, 317.306 and 318.139). The 2027 adjustment will reflect how far the July-through-September 2026 average sits above that base. With July and August already published, September is the only piece still missing, which is why the October 14 release is the date the raise becomes fixed by the data.
What August’s 3.5 percent does and does not show
The most recent number in circulation is the August CPI report, which showed CPI-W up 3.5 percent over the previous 12 months, to an index level of 328.481. That is a measure of inflation across the year ending in August. It is not the 2027 raise, and it is not a forecast published by the Social Security Administration.
Two reasons keep the 3.5 percent from standing in for the COLA. The adjustment depends on a three-month average rather than a single month, and the September data point has not been released. Anyone seeing the 3.5 percent quoted as “the 2027 COLA” is looking at a different measurement. The percentage that will actually apply to Social Security checks gets set only when the quarter’s numbers are complete, and the Social Security Administration’s COLA page has no 2027 figure on it as of today.
How the one-point FERS reduction works
Federal civilian retirees fall into two groups for this purpose. Retirees under the older Civil Service Retirement System receive the full inflation-based increase. Retirees under FERS are subject to what is often called a “diet COLA.” As the National Active and Retired Federal Employees organization (NARFE) explains in a September 18 post, “FERS law subtracts one percentage point any time inflation runs above 3 percent.”
The same post works through the arithmetic if the adjustment lands at August’s pace: a 3.5 percent increase would leave CSRS retirees with 3.5 percent and FERS retirees with 2.5 percent. That comparison is NARFE’s illustration, tied to August’s reading. The real figure will differ if September moves the quarter’s average, and the one-point reduction would apply to whatever number emerges, provided it is above 3 percent.
The reduction applies to the FERS annuity itself. NARFE says it backs the Equal COLA Act, which would end the reduction, and is urging members to ask their representatives to cosponsor it. As of the post, the reduction remains the law.
The 2.8 percent baseline for the 2026 checks
Retirees comparing the coming adjustment against the last one have a fixed reference point. The Social Security Administration’s COLA page states that benefits rose by 2.8 percent beginning with the December 2025 benefits, payable in January 2026. The agency’s 2026 COLA fact sheet put the average retired worker’s monthly benefit at $2,071 after that increase.
Inflation measured at 3.5 percent in August is running above the 2.8 percent that applied to this year’s checks, which is why the October 14 report draws attention from retirees and from federal annuitants alike. Until the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the September figure and the Social Security Administration announces the result, the verified numbers are the 2.8 percent already in effect and the 3.5 percent already measured.
What a COLA percentage does and does not settle for the next check
The October 14 release will settle an inflation reading and, with it, the 2027 percentage. It will not say when a particular payment arrives or what to do if one is late, missing or later questioned as an overpayment. Those practical jobs remain for each household to organize.
The Social Security Check Protection Kit includes a 2026 payment calendar for tracking deposit dates and an overpayment response worksheet for organizing a reply if a payment is questioned.
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This article was produced with AI assistance and checked against the primary sources linked above.
David M. Keller is a finance writer based in Columbus, Ohio, covering personal finance and consumer-focused economic topics. He earned his degree in journalism from Ohio University and began his career reporting on local business and economic trends for a regional media outlet. Since then, he has contributed to a variety of online publications, focusing on clear, practical coverage of topics such as cost of living, debt, and everyday financial decision-making.
