Medicare Advantage enrollees heading into the 2027 plan year got a reassuring national number from federal officials: about 80% of members can keep their current plan without paying a higher premium. The figure comes from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, which put it at “approximately eight in 10” beneficiaries. The same arithmetic leaves roughly one in five members facing a plan that costs more or changes in some other way.
Open Enrollment begins Oct. 15, so the gap between the headline and any individual plan matters now.
What CMS says about keeping the same Medicare Advantage plan
In its September 28 landscape release for 2027, CMS said “approximately eight in 10 MA beneficiaries will be able to remain in their current plan with the same or a lower premium in 2027.” The wording is about ability to stay, not a guarantee for any particular contract, and it describes premiums only. A plan can hold its premium steady while changing deductibles, copays, drug formularies or provider networks.
CMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz framed the announcement around affordability, stating that the agency “is fighting to keep high-quality care options affordable and accessible for the millions of beneficiaries who rely on Medicare Advantage and Part D prescription drug plans.”
The $12.00 average premium and what it measures
The release pairs the 80% figure with a drop in the weighted average monthly Medicare Advantage premium, from $14.37 in 2026 to $12.00 in 2027, a decline of 16.5%. A weighted average blends plans of very different size, so a lower average does not mean every plan got cheaper, and CMS’s own statement that about two in 10 members cannot keep the same or a lower premium confirms that some did not.
That distinction explains how both statements can be true at once. If most members sit in plans with flat or falling premiums, the average falls even while a minority sees increases. CMS did not break out in its release how large those increases are, or how many of the roughly 20% are looking at a higher premium instead of a plan that is ending or altering its benefits.
The roughly one in five who may not keep the same deal
The inverse of eight in 10 is two in 10, and CMS projects about 34 million Medicare Advantage enrollees in 2027, about 47.4% of the Medicare-enrolled population. Applied to that enrollment, the minority is a very large group in absolute terms, even though CMS did not publish a headcount for it.
The release does not name which plans or counties fall into the group whose premium rises. Total national plan counts barely moved, with CMS listing 5,553 Medicare Advantage plans in 2026 and approximately 5,532 in 2027, so the change is concentrated in the details of individual plans rather than in a wave of exits. CMS also reports that more than 99% of beneficiaries have access to at least one Medicare Advantage plan and 97% have access to 10 or more, which means most members who do face a higher premium have alternatives available in their area.
State experience can diverge from the national figure
National percentages blur local markets, because Medicare Advantage bids, benchmarks and competition are set county by county. CMS publishes state-by-state landscape fact sheets alongside the release, and those sheets exist precisely because averages in one state can differ from another. A member’s own county and carrier decide whether that person lands in the 80% or in the remainder.
Open Enrollment dates and the official comparison tools
Open Enrollment runs from Oct. 15 through Dec. 7, 2026. CMS points beneficiaries to Medicare.gov and its Medicare Plan Finder for side-by-side comparisons, and to 1-800-MEDICARE, which the agency says is available 24 hours a day. Those routes are free and can be used directly, with no intermediary needed.
The release does not identify which individual plans raise premiums, so the plan-level answer sits outside the national announcement. A member who wants to know whether a specific plan lands in the 80% or the remainder has to look up that plan’s 2027 premium directly in the Plan Finder, or in the plan’s own materials from the insurer, and compare it with the 2026 amount. Switching, if desired, has to happen inside the Oct. 15 to Dec. 7 window.
Because the 80% describes what members will be able to do rather than what each will pay, the practical test is plan by plan. A member whose current plan is in the favorable group keeps the same or a lower premium; a member in the other group faces a higher one, or a different plan, and has the same seven weeks to compare alternatives. CMS counts more than 99% of beneficiaries as having at least one Medicare Advantage plan available, so a comparison is possible nearly everywhere.
The state fact sheets and the national release remain the primary record for the 2027 landscape, and the 80% figure, the $14.37 to $12.00 premium drop and the Oct. 15 to Dec. 7 window all appear in CMS’s own September 28 announcement.
Sorting the plan decision before December
The roughly one in five Medicare Advantage members who fall outside CMS’s same-or-lower premium figure still have to decide among plans on cost, drugs and doctors, and the CMS release leaves that comparison to each member.
The 2027 Medicare Open Enrollment Decision Kit includes a cost calculator spreadsheet that compares plans on cost, drugs and doctors, plus the Open Enrollment calendar, so a member can work through the choice before the Dec. 7 close.
Open the Open Enrollment calendar and plan comparison before Dec. 7 →
AI assistance was used in producing this article, which was reviewed against the official documents it cites.
David M. Keller is a finance writer based in Columbus, Ohio, covering personal finance and consumer-focused economic topics. He earned his degree in journalism from Ohio University and began his career reporting on local business and economic trends for a regional media outlet. Since then, he has contributed to a variety of online publications, focusing on clear, practical coverage of topics such as cost of living, debt, and everyday financial decision-making.
