Households that heat with natural gas are forecast to spend an average of $640 from November through March, according to the Energy Department’s statistical arm. The Winter Fuels Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, released October 6, puts the Northeast at $879 and the South at $511, and shows the national figure down 9% from last winter.
The gap between regions is the story inside the average. A household in the Northeast is projected to pay $368 more over the five months than one in the South, and the West is the only region where gas bills are expected to climb, by 7%.
For anyone on a fixed income in a cold-weather state, a bill near $879 spread over five months is a real line in the budget, and it is a forecast of what a typical household uses, not a cap on what any one home will owe. Whether heating help exists for a household, and what its income limit is, is a separate question that the forecast does not answer. The programs that cover winter energy costs are opt-in, which means nothing arrives unless the household applies.
A Northeast gas bill projected at $879 is the kind of cost that heating assistance exists to ease, and that assistance has to be applied for. The Benefits Checklist covers 11 benefit programs, heating and cooling help among them, with the 2026 income limits for each.
Look up the 2026 income limits for heating help in The Benefits Checklist →
Month by month, region by region
The outlook breaks each region into monthly bills. In the Northeast, the projected gas bill runs from $148 in November to $206 in January, the peak, before easing to $165 in March. The Midwest total is $613, down 10%, and the South’s $511 is down 15%, the largest drop of any region. The West, at $590, is up 7%. The Northeast’s 14% drop implies a bill of about $1,020 last winter, and the South’s 15% drop implies about $600. The EIA counts roughly 61 million gas-heated households this year (60,962 thousand), so the averages describe a very large group of homes.
Nationally, the monthly average climbs from $111 in November to $146 in January and falls to $116 by March. That makes January about 32% costlier than November nationally, and in the Northeast the January bill of $206 runs about 39% above November’s $148. January is the most expensive month in every region except the West, where December edges ahead at $137 against $131.
The EIA ties the national decline to price rather than use: the average gas price for the winter is $13.44 per thousand cubic feet, down 9%, while the average household’s consumption is roughly flat. The agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook puts the Henry Hub natural gas price at $3.48 for 2026 and $3.16 for 2027. The agency’s forecast assumes national temperatures similar to last winter, with a warmer Northeast and a much colder West, which is why West consumption is projected to rise 17% while the Northeast’s falls 10%.
How gas compares with other ways to heat
Gas is the cheapest fuel on the EIA’s list for the season. Electric heat is forecast at $1,196 on average for November through March, up 4%. Propane averages $1,246, down 3%, and heating oil averages $2,115, up 21%. Measured against the $640 gas figure, heating oil costs about 3.3 times as much, and electric heat and propane each cost about 1.9 times as much. The EIA’s companion Today in Energy note reports that more than 40% of U.S. homes heat with electricity, about 3% use heating oil, and gas and propane together serve about half of households.
Those figures matter for older households because heating oil and propane customers face a different winter than gas customers. A home on heating oil is looking at the steepest increase in the outlook, an increase of 21% over last winter.
The EIA itself describes the figures as average consumer expenditures, best interpreted as a broad guide. Cold snaps, a larger home, an older furnace or a different rate from the local utility can push an individual bill well above or below the regional number, and the agency’s side cases test winters 10% colder or 10% warmer than the base forecast.
Lining up heating help before the first cold bill
The federal route is the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program. The Administration for Children and Families describes LIHEAP as a federally funded program that helps low-income households with their home energy bills, with eligibility tied to the federal poverty guidelines and state median income estimates. States run their own applications, so the page points to a clearinghouse for how and where to apply.
Anyone planning to apply can pull together a recent utility bill, proof of income for everyone in the household and identification before starting, since income limits and documents differ by state. A utility’s own hardship or payment-plan line is worth a call at the same time, because those arrangements are set by the company and the state commission rather than by the federal program.
The EIA’s next monthly outlook arrives November 10, and its winter numbers will move if the weather or gas prices do. For now, the October release is the baseline: $640 nationally, $879 in the Northeast, $511 in the South.
If $879 is the winter gas bill, which help applies?
The heating help that could ease a bill like that is one of 11 programs scattered across different agencies, each with its own 2026 income limit. The Benefits Checklist puts those 11 benefit programs, the 2026 income limits and a 50-state phone directory in one 84-page guide, with a printable tracker that comes with the download so each application is tracked to the end.
Get the 11-program checklist with heating-help income limits for this winter →
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by The Financial Wire’s editorial team.
Warren Cohen is a finance writer based in Phoenix, Arizona, covering personal finance topics including credit, banking, and beginner investing. He earned his degree in business administration from Arizona State University and began his career working in consumer finance, where he gained direct experience with lending and credit systems. He now writes for personal finance websites and fintech platforms, focusing on clear, practical content that helps readers make informed financial decisions.
