On Long Island, Nassau County had 28.6 percent fewer home sellers than buyers in September, which made it the strongest seller’s market among the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas, Redfin says. Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, came second, followed by Newark, New Jersey, Milwaukee and San Francisco. They were the only five of the 50 where sellers were scarce enough to qualify.
That puts them against the national trend. Redfin estimates 1,510,784 sellers and 928,892 buyers in the market nationwide in September, and 41 of the 50 metros were buyer’s markets. In these five, the opposite is true: Redfin counts a seller’s market wherever there are more than 10 percent fewer sellers than buyers.
Anyone deciding whether their own market is a seller’s market needs the same two inputs Redfin uses: how many sellers are active and how many buyers are in the market. If sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10 percent, the market is on the buyer’s side. If there are more than 10 percent fewer sellers, as in Nassau County, it favors sellers.
Redfin repeats this ranking every month, so the list of seller’s markets can change the day the next count lands.
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The ranking, with each gap
Redfin’s September buyers-versus-sellers report, published October 14, gives the five gaps. Nassau County led at 28.6 percent fewer sellers than buyers. Montgomery County followed at 22.7 percent, Newark at 18.5 percent, Milwaukee at 16.1 percent and San Francisco at 10.6 percent. Redfin says it was the second month in a row with five seller’s markets.
Four other metros were classed as balanced in September, meaning sellers and buyers were within 10 percent of each other. Redfin did not name them. It did flag two that are moving: Boston, where sellers outnumbered buyers by 7.4 percent after being roughly even in August, and Providence, Rhode Island, where sellers went from 7.4 percent fewer than buyers to 2.4 percent more.
Why Long Island stays tight
Redfin ties the New York-area result to supply. Limited construction keeps the number of homes for sale small. Nassau County’s other numbers fit that. In Redfin’s pending home sales report, Nassau County was among five metros with cancellation rates under 8 percent, against 14.5 percent nationally. Its closed sales rose 2.8 percent from a year earlier in September, one of the three biggest gains among the 50 metros, while new listings fell 6 percent.
Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, shows the same thing from another angle. Pending sales there fell just 1.6 percent from a year earlier in September, the smallest decline of any of the 50 metros while the national count dropped to its lowest since spring 2014. Its cancellation rate was also under 8 percent, and San Francisco’s, at 2.8 percent, was the lowest in the country. Redfin lists San Francisco, Nassau County and Montgomery County as three of the five seller’s markets.
What a tight market does to prices
In August, home sale prices in the five seller’s markets rose an average of 6.4 percent from a year earlier, Redfin says. Prices across buyer’s markets rose about 1 percent.
San Francisco shows it most clearly. Its September median sale price rose 14.6 percent from a year earlier, the biggest increase among the 50 metros, according to the pending home sales report. Redfin says wealth tied to artificial intelligence has added sales and buyer competition there. Cleveland followed at 7.9 percent and St. Louis at 6.7 percent. Seattle, by contrast, fell 4.4 percent, San Jose 3.4 percent and Denver 2.6 percent.
Nationally the picture is flat. Redfin’s news page lists a September median sale price of $393,895, up 1.3 percent from a year earlier. Miami, by comparison, had 158.9 percent more sellers than buyers.
A seller’s market in a weak national year
Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin, described the national market as “a buyer’s market born out of caution, not strength.” Buyers are at their lowest count in records dating to 2013, and Redfin says rising mortgage rates and sustained home prices pushed them out.
The cost of borrowing is part of what buyers face there. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40 percent on October 8, up from 6.30 percent a year earlier.
Whether a local market passes the 10 percent test
Redfin publishes the ratio for metro areas, not for towns or zip codes. A homeowner on Long Island or in Milwaukee can still use it as a starting point: the market is a seller’s market if there are more than 10 percent fewer sellers than buyers, and it is balanced inside 10 percent in either direction.
Anyone outside the five should check which side of the line the metro sits on in Redfin’s report, then compare it with what local agents say about listings and offers. Boston and Providence show how quickly the label can change from one month to the next.
Prices in the five seller’s markets rose faster than in buyer’s markets in August, but they remain a small group in a market where 41 of 50 metros tilt the other way. The next report from Redfin will show whether any metro joins or leaves the list.
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This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by The Financial Wire’s editorial team.
David M. Keller is a finance writer based in Columbus, Ohio, covering personal finance and consumer-focused economic topics. He earned his degree in journalism from Ohio University and began his career reporting on local business and economic trends for a regional media outlet. Since then, he has contributed to a variety of online publications, focusing on clear, practical coverage of topics such as cost of living, debt, and everyday financial decision-making.
