“Premiums will go up by less than $10 for most Medicare recipients, with many even seeing LOWER premiums.” That was Dr. Mehmet Oz, the head of Medicare, announcing in July that the Part D premium stabilization program will end after 2026. For people in stand-alone Medicare drug plans, 2027 is the first year without it.
The promise covers “most” people, not everyone. About 25 million Americans were in stand-alone drug plans this year, so even a small group on the wrong side of the line is a large number. Open enrollment runs through December 7, and new premiums start January 1.
What the program did and why it is ending
The Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration gave insurers extra federal support so that drug-plan premiums would not jump or spread far apart while the market adjusted to the Inflation Reduction Act changes. Newsweek reported that participation was voluntary and that the program covered only stand-alone Part D plans.
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services says insurers’ 2027 bids show they now have enough experience under the new benefit to price without help. In its September 28 announcement, the agency said 2027 coverage will not rely “on billions of dollars in temporary subsidies to insurance companies.”
Where the $10 comes from
Oz made the less-than-$10 statement in a post on X, according to Newsweek, and said the administration expected increases to stay limited. Oz’s line in the September release was blunter: “By slashing handouts to big insurance companies, CMS is keeping premiums stable.”
For anyone who pays a stand-alone Part D premium today, the question is personal. Will the plan they already have stay under the $10 line, or is it one of the plans that leaned on the subsidy? The premium notice from the insurer answers that, and Medicare’s open enrollment window decides whether there is still time to act.
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The agency backs it with a different number. CMS says 88% of people who do not get low-income help will have access to a basic Part D plan at a premium of $10.30 or less. It says 93% will have access to an enhanced plan at under $6. Those figures describe what is available, not what each person pays.
Why $41.33 is not a bill
One 2027 figure will circulate widely: the national base beneficiary premium of $41.33. Newsweek explains that this is only the starting point used to calculate the basic premium for individual plans, so what a person actually pays may be higher or lower.
ElderLawAnswers, in a piece by Lee Pruitt, puts the change in the base figure at about 6%, from $38.99 a month in 2026. A separate provision of the Inflation Reduction Act limits yearly growth in that base premium to 6% through 2029. The base moving 6% says little about any one plan’s price.
The critics and the exceptions
Leslie Dach, chair of Protect Our Care, said in a statement that the subsidy helped older Americans afford their medicine and that many would soon pay more. He accused the administration of “making health care more expensive for seniors at every turn.” The group said even small increases can be too much for some people.
Peter Abilla, a licensed Medicare agent at Resting Sycamore, called the decision “a fair call, mostly,” since insurers had two years of data. He also said plan-specific premiums can still vary and some stand-alone plans could swing by more. ElderLawAnswers adds that KFF analysts see the biggest risk for plans that relied heavily on the subsidy.
One protection is unchanged. Newsweek says ending the demonstration does not remove the cap on yearly out-of-pocket drug spending, which was $2,100 in 2026.
Who the change does not reach
The program covered only stand-alone drug plans, so people who get drug coverage inside a Medicare Advantage plan are on a different track. CMS projects that the average Part D portion of those plans’ premiums falls from $11.32 to $7 a month in 2027. Members of a stand-alone plan should not assume the same relief.
ElderLawAnswers counts about 56 million people in Part D overall, with about 25 million of them in stand-alone plans. That puts the stand-alone group at roughly four in ten Part D enrollees, which is why a premium shift on this side of the market reaches so many households at once.
What 2027 plan prices are measured against
Medicare’s joining a plan page says people in Original Medicare can join, drop or switch drug plans from October 15 through December 7, with coverage starting January 1. Oz said in the release: “We urge beneficiaries to use Open Enrollment as an opportunity to review their coverage.”
Medicare’s Plan Finder is the official place to compare drug plans. The less-than-$10 claim is an administration estimate for most people. Whether a given plan lands under it will be clear only from that plan’s own 2027 premium, and December 7 is the last day to change it.
Will your Part D premium stay under the $10 line in 2027?
A drug plan that leaned on the ended subsidy can climb past the $10 estimate, and the new premium starts January 1 whether or not the plan was ever compared. After December 7, a stand-alone plan cannot be changed through open enrollment.
The 2027 Medicare Open Enrollment Decision Kit includes a cost calculator spreadsheet that compares plans on cost, drugs and doctors, plus a prescription-by-plan comparison. Part 2, the Drug and Doctor Coverage Check, is the section that lines a drug list up against each plan.
Compare 2027 drug plans on your prescriptions with a Decision Kit calculator →
More Financial Reading
- 17 Medicare Money Moves Now That Part D Caps at $2,400
- 21 Ways to Stretch a $2,087 Social Security Check
- 15 Places to Find Your Share of the $4.25 Billion States Give Back
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by the editorial team.
David M. Keller is a finance writer based in Columbus, Ohio, covering personal finance and consumer-focused economic topics. He earned his degree in journalism from Ohio University and began his career reporting on local business and economic trends for a regional media outlet. Since then, he has contributed to a variety of online publications, focusing on clear, practical coverage of topics such as cost of living, debt, and everyday financial decision-making.
