The tariffs President Trump has imposed since January 2025 raised an estimated $314.8 billion in gross customs revenue through August 2026, before any refunds, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model. That is the amount collected at the border, not what the Treasury keeps. A Supreme Court ruling has since forced the government to hand back a large slice of it.
What the $314.8 billion counts, and what it leaves out
The October 14 update from Penn Wharton, a University of Pennsylvania research group, says the new tariffs raised $314.8 billion in gross customs revenue between January 2025 and August 2026, “before accounting for refunds following the IEEPA ruling.” IEEPA is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the emergency-powers law the first wave of tariffs relied on.
The figure is a model estimate, not a Treasury receipt. Penn Wharton says it excludes indirect effects on income and payroll taxes. The group also estimates that without importers changing what and where they buy, gross revenue over the period would have been $60.7 billion higher.
Who pays matters for a household budget. Importers pay duties when goods enter the country, and the refunds described below flow back to them, not to shoppers. Penn Wharton’s update gives no estimate of what tariffs cost a typical household, so the revenue total cannot be read as a bill for any one family.
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The refund bill for the struck-down tariffs
The Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026, that the tariffs imposed under IEEPA were unconstitutional, Penn Wharton says. Those tariffs had collected about $166 billion, all of it subject to refund. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) had certified about $126 billion in refunds through October 2, roughly 76% of that total, and the refund figure includes interest.
A sworn declaration filed in the Court of International Trade by Brandon Lord, CBP’s executive director of trade programs, shows how the process works. As of September 11, importers had submitted 286,044 refund declarations through a CBP system called CAPE, and about $134.7 billion in potential and certified refunds had been accepted for processing.
About $122 billion of that had been certified and sent to the Treasury by September 11. Another 20,184 refunds worth about $1.3 billion were held up because importers had not given CBP bank account details. The declaration says a third phase of the system was set to open October 6 for entries that were already finally settled, and the declarations accepted so far cover 27.2 million import entries.
What the federal budget shows
The Congressional Budget Office sees the refunds in its monthly numbers. In its September budget review, CBO says customs duties collected in fiscal year 2026 dropped by $22 billion, or 11%, from the year before. It estimates about $130 billion was issued in IEEPA refunds during the fiscal year.
The effect was sharpest last month. CBO says customs duties in September fell by $24 billion, or 83%, from September 2025, mainly because of those refunds. A gross total like Penn Wharton’s and the budget office’s refund-adjusted collections describe the same tariffs from two sides.
For taxpayers, the gap between gross and kept revenue is the point. A large part of the early collections is being returned, with interest, to the companies that paid them. The $166 billion collected under IEEPA is roughly 53% of the $314.8 billion gross total, and Penn Wharton says all of it is subject to refund.
The duties that remain in force
Tariffs did not disappear with the ruling. Penn Wharton puts the average effective tariff rate at 7.1% in August, up from 6.7% in July and 2.3% in January 2025. A 10% global tariff under Section 122 of trade law took effect in March and expired on July 24, 2026.
August’s 7.1% is more than triple the 2.3% rate of January 2025, yet it is lower than the level before the Supreme Court acted. Penn Wharton ties the recent decline to the February 20 ruling. The rise from 6.7% to 7.1% in a single month shows that the replacement tariffs are still building.
Section 301 tariffs of 10% or 12.5% now apply to imports from 60 economies, with exemptions for certain products. The highest rate by category is steel and aluminum at 39.8%, which reflects existing Section 232 tariffs and a June 2025 increase from 25% to 50%. Automotive vehicles face 13.8%, and China faces 24.3%, the highest among major trading partners.
Canada and Mexico are treated differently. Penn Wharton says 81.4% of imports from the two countries now enter duty-free under the USMCA trade agreement, a share that has risen sharply since early 2025. The group’s pre-substitution rate, which measures duties before importers shift what they buy, rose from 9.6% to 10.1% between July and August.
What none of these sources settle is how much of the cost reached store shelves. The tariff and refund numbers are the government’s side of the ledger. Prices on cars, appliances and groceries are the other side, and the households watching them have to estimate it for themselves.
Prices still rising after the tariff refunds?
Tariff refunds go to importers, so a household facing higher prices on cars, appliances and groceries does not get a check. Those costs land on the monthly budget whether or not the government keeps the revenue, and the programs that offset them do not apply on their own.
The Benefits Checklist scans 11 benefit programs, including SNAP, heating help and property-tax breaks, with the 2026 income limits and a 50-state phone directory. The tariff data cannot say what to do about higher prices; this kit finishes that related job, and a printable tracker comes with the download.
Check 11 cost-relief programs against rising prices with the Benefits Checklist →
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This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
Warren Cohen is a finance writer based in Phoenix, Arizona, covering personal finance topics including credit, banking, and beginner investing. He earned his degree in business administration from Arizona State University and began his career working in consumer finance, where he gained direct experience with lending and credit systems. He now writes for personal finance websites and fintech platforms, focusing on clear, practical content that helps readers make informed financial decisions.
