A gallon of regular gasoline cost about $3.01 at the start of January. By mid-April, the national average had climbed to roughly $3.68, a jump of about 22%, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly retail price series. For a family filling a 20-gallon SUV tank twice a month, that translates to nearly $27 more per month just to keep driving to work, school, and the grocery store.
Americans know exactly who they blame. A Pew Research Center survey of 3,507 adults, conducted March 23 through 29, found that 69% expressed concern about higher gas and fuel prices resulting from military action against Iran. Nearly half, 45%, said they were extremely concerned. No other issue tested in the poll, not national security threats, not broader inflation, generated the same level of alarm.
The pump price surge is not a blip
The EIA data, built from a sampling framework supplemented by commercial transaction records, shows a sustained climb rather than a short-lived spike. Some regions absorbed even steeper increases. West Coast drivers and parts of the Gulf South saw prices rise faster than the national average, widening the gap between what households budgeted for fuel in January and what they are actually paying now.
“When gas prices rise this fast, it acts like a tax on every household in America, and lower-income families feel it first,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNBC in April 2026. The worry is not confined to one political tribe. Pew’s data, drawn from its probability-based American Trends Panel, shows majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents all flagging gas prices as a leading concern. That kind of bipartisan consensus on a single pocketbook issue is rare and suggests the anxiety runs deeper than partisan framing can explain.
Consumer confidence is sliding fast
The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers captured the mood shift in real time. In its April 2026 release, the Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 57.9, down from 64.7 in March, a month-over-month drop of roughly 11%. The decline spread across income brackets and age groups rather than concentrating in one demographic. Year-ahead inflation expectations also ticked higher, a signal that households are starting to treat elevated energy costs as the new normal instead of a temporary disruption.
That darkening outlook is already showing up in spending data. The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which tracks actual credit- and debit-card transactions rather than relying on traditional surveys, reported that overall retail spending slipped approximately 1.4% in March 2026 compared with February. Discretionary categories like apparel and home goods took the biggest hit, consistent with families redirecting a larger share of their monthly budgets toward fuel and groceries. Because the monitor uses real transaction data with fewer revisions than government estimates, the pullback carries early-warning weight that economists take seriously.
A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted March 17 through 20, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points, reinforced the picture. Respondents said they were cutting back on driving, postponing major purchases, and dipping into savings specifically because of higher energy costs. Many expected oil and gas prices to keep rising, feeding a broader sense that the squeeze is not going away soon.
What the data cannot yet explain
For all the numbers pointing in one direction, several critical unknowns remain. Neither the Department of Energy nor the White House has issued an official forecast tying the Iran conflict to a specific gas-price trajectory. Analysts are left to infer likely outcomes from market signals and historical parallels to past Gulf disruptions, a reasonable approach but one that carries real uncertainty.
The polling captures what Americans feel and expect, yet it does not draw a precise line between individual military events and specific price movements at the pump. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world’s traded oil, have coincided with the steepest week-over-week gasoline price increases this spring. But no official government analysis has confirmed a direct causal link between particular incidents and particular pump-price jumps. The University of Michigan release attributed the sentiment decline broadly to gas prices and market volatility without mapping it to a timeline of conflict escalation, leaving the exact trigger points open to interpretation.
Regional impacts are another blind spot. The CNBC/NRF data is national in scope and does not break down by state or metro area. That matters because a household in rural Texas with a 45-minute commute and no public transit option faces a fundamentally different squeeze than a family in Brooklyn who can take the subway. The EIA’s regional price series shows where costs are rising fastest, but it does not connect those increases to local wages, employment, or small-business health.
A policy vacuum at the worst time
Past energy shocks have prompted Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, temporary gas-tax holidays, and targeted aid for low-income households. So far in this cycle, no definitive federal relief package has been announced, and state-level proposals remain in early discussion. That vacuum adds another layer of uncertainty for families trying to plan summer budgets and for businesses mapping out the months ahead.
Global conditions could push prices in either direction. Energy markets are reacting not only to events in the Persian Gulf but also to production decisions by OPEC+ members, the pace of demand growth in China and Europe, and refinery maintenance schedules heading into the summer driving season. Until those variables settle, forecasters warn against assuming the current price path will continue in a straight line.
What 69% concern actually looks like at the kitchen table
Strip away the poll numbers and the price charts, and the picture is straightforward: gas is up roughly 22% since January, concern is widespread and bipartisan, consumer sentiment has dropped about 11% in a single month, and discretionary spending is already pulling back. The open question is whether the shock proves temporary, easing if diplomacy gains traction or supply routes stabilize, or whether it marks the start of a longer stretch in which energy costs, foreign policy, and household budgets stay tangled together.
For the 69% of Americans who told Pew that fuel prices are their top Iran-related worry, that distinction is not abstract. It is the difference between a tough few months and a fundamental rethinking of how they drive, shop, and save. Right now, most of them are not waiting for Washington to sort it out. They are already making cuts.
Paul Anderson is a finance writer and editor at The Financial Wire. He has spent seven years writing about investment strategies and the global economy for digital publications across the US and UK. His work focuses on making sense of economic policy, cost-of-living issues, and the stories that affect everyday Americans.
