Maryland’s Medicare Advantage market shrinks from 63 plan offerings to 47 for 2027, Wyoming’s from 14 to 8, while Arizona’s grows from 133 to 148, according to Becker’s Payer Issues’ reading of the federal 2027 plan file published Sept. 28. The count covers individual plans sold in each state, not the number of people enrolled in them. Across the 51 jurisdictions where individual Medicare Advantage is sold, choices fall in 29 and rise in 21.
Where Medicare Advantage choices shrink most in 2027
Florida still has the largest market and loses the most plans in raw terms, dropping from 611 to 560, Becker’s reported. Ohio falls from 212 to 180 and Illinois from 157 to 136. Wyoming’s drop from 14 to 8 is about 43%, the steepest percentage decline in the country, and Montana follows at 32 to 23.
Maryland’s loss of 16 offerings is about 25%, the same proportion as the District of Columbia, which goes from 20 to 15. Minnesota slips from 68 to 53. Alaska remains the only state with no individual Medicare Advantage plans for sale at all.
Why a county, not a state, decides what is left
Insurers file plans county by county, so a state-level figure hides wide differences inside it. Someone in a Maryland county that loses a plan faces a very different choice from someone in a neighboring county that keeps all of its options. The same holds in Wyoming, where eight offerings are spread across a mostly rural map.
Anyone in a state on the losing list who gets a notice that a plan is ending, or whose plan is changing its benefits, has to look at the county’s remaining plans, not the state’s headline count. The practical test is whether the current doctors, hospital and prescriptions are still covered under whatever is left. Open enrollment runs Oct. 15 to Dec. 7, and Medicare.gov says a plan “must get your request to join by December 7” for coverage to start on Jan. 1.
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Which states are adding plans, and what Arizona’s 148 means
Tennessee adds the most, going from 132 to 155, with Missouri up from 157 to 174 and Alabama from 98 to 113. Arizona’s rise from 133 to 148 puts it among the larger gainers, and its market stays one of the most crowded in the country.
More offerings do not mean better ones. A plan count can rise because insurers add several versions of the same product, and it can fall because a company folds look-alike plans together. A state’s total says little about whether the specific plan a person uses will return.
The gain is not free of tradeoffs. Missouri and Tennessee, for example, are adding offerings in the same year insurers elsewhere are pulling back, which suggests carriers are redrawing their maps rather than leaving Medicare Advantage as a whole. Someone who moves between states, or who splits the year between two homes, can face two entirely different sets of plans.
Premiums move in both directions, and Wyoming’s rises most
Plan counts are only part of the cost picture, since a smaller field can still be cheaper and a larger one can cost more. In Wyoming the average monthly premium climbs from $45.91 to $69.23, the largest increase Becker’s listed, while Idaho goes from $27.81 to $37.93 and Connecticut from $16.89 to $25.31. In the other direction, D.C. falls from $26.28 to $16.91 and Mississippi from $11.18 to $4.08.
Nationally, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services projects the weighted average monthly premium will fall 16.5%, from $14.37 to $12, and says more than 99% of beneficiaries will have access to at least one plan, with 97% having 10 or more options, according to Becker’s account. Plans nationwide dip only from 5,553 to about 5,532, so the shrinkage is concentrated in particular states rather than spread evenly.
Plan exits are already landing on specific members
The state tallies sit on top of insurer decisions that are forcing real members to move. KFF counted more than 4 million Medicare beneficiaries whose Medicare Advantage or stand-alone drug plan ends at the end of 2026. Becker’s separately noted that as many as 2.9 million Medicare Advantage enrollees had to find new coverage after discontinuations or insurer exits last year.
Becker’s also cited Humana’s July statement that its 2027 exits are expected to affect about 600,000 members. Anyone covered by a plan that is ending receives a notice from the insurer, and that notice sets the clock for choosing a replacement. Becker’s counts cannot say which county lost which plan, so the plan finder for a person’s own ZIP code is the only place to see what actually remains.
Becker’s said CMS expects 2027 enrollment to again exceed what plans project. Plans project 34 million Medicare Advantage enrollees, about 47.4% of Medicare beneficiaries, against actual 2026 enrollment of 36.1 million as of June. A market that is still growing while individual states thin out leaves more people competing for fewer choices in places like Maryland and Wyoming.
Will the plan survive in your county for 2027?
A state that loses offerings may not carry the same plan next year, and Dec. 7 is the last day for a new choice to start Jan. 1. Staying put by default can mean paying more or losing a doctor without anyone having decided it.
“The 2027 Medicare Open Enrollment Decision Kit” includes a cost calculator spreadsheet that compares plans on cost, drugs and doctors, plus the Open Enrollment calendar. Its Part 2, “The Drug and Doctor Coverage Check,” is built to test whether a current prescription list and provider list still fit a replacement plan.
Get the plan-comparison calculator and Dec. 7 calendar for a shrinking market →
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
David M. Keller is a finance writer based in Columbus, Ohio, covering personal finance and consumer-focused economic topics. He earned his degree in journalism from Ohio University and began his career reporting on local business and economic trends for a regional media outlet. Since then, he has contributed to a variety of online publications, focusing on clear, practical coverage of topics such as cost of living, debt, and everyday financial decision-making.
