CMS says most Medicare Advantage members will not pay more to stay where they are next year. About eight in 10 members can keep their current plan in 2027 at the same or a lower premium, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said on Sept. 28 in its release on next year’s plans. By the same arithmetic, roughly two in 10 members will face a higher premium or cannot stay in the plan they have.
Medicare Advantage plan change: The eight-in-10 figure does not say which plan suits the other two in 10; The 2027 Medicare Open Enrollment Decision Kit includes a cost calculator spreadsheet. Line up plans by cost, drugs and doctors →
Two conditions hide inside “keep their plan”
The sentence in the CMS announcement says approximately eight in 10 Medicare Advantage beneficiaries “can remain in their current plans” with the same or a lower premium. Two things must hold for a member to land in that group: the plan has to be available for 2027, and its premium must not rise. A member outside the eight in 10 fails at least one of the two tests. The release gives no separate count for each group.
CMS projects 34 million people in Medicare Advantage in 2027. Applied to that projection, two in 10 is roughly 7 million people. That is a rough calculation from a rounded fraction, not a CMS estimate, and it moves with the exact share the agency used.
The release pairs the eight-in-10 statement with a weighted average premium of $12.00 for 2027, down 16.5% from $14.37 in 2026. Both can be true at once. An average can fall while a minority of members pay more, and the average alone cannot show which side of that line a particular member sits on.
A premium promise that says nothing about copays or doctors
The eight-in-10 claim measures the monthly premium. It does not speak to deductibles, copayments, provider networks or drug formularies, all of which decide what a plan costs a member who is actually using care. Members in the eight in 10 can still see other terms change. For plans that include drug coverage, CMS put the average drug portion of the premium at $7 in 2027, down from $11.32 after rebates, another average that says little about one member’s formulary.
Drug spending has its own ceiling. Medicare.gov’s Part D costs page says out-of-pocket spending on covered drugs reaches the cap at $2,100 in 2026 and $2,400 in 2027, after which catastrophic coverage means no cost-sharing for covered drugs for the rest of the calendar year. A member whose plan keeps a flat premium therefore faces a higher spending cap on drugs next year.
The market members can move within is large
CMS counted about 5,532 Medicare Advantage plans for 2027, against 5,553 in 2026. The agency said more than 99% of beneficiaries can reach at least one plan and 97% can reach 10 or more. The choice is real for most people. The landscape files listed on CMS’s prescription drug coverage page as “CY2027 Landscape (202609)” hold the plan premiums that a member would compare.
The same release reports that 88% of beneficiaries without low-income assistance can reach a basic stand-alone Part D plan at $10.30 a month or less, and 93% can reach an enhanced plan under $6. Those are access figures for people who do not receive Extra Help, and they describe stand-alone drug plans rather than Medicare Advantage.
Sorting 5,532 plans by premium, drug list and doctor before Dec. 7
The members in the two in 10 face a choice with several moving parts. A lower premium in one plan can come with a formulary that lacks a needed drug or a network that omits a physician, and the premium is the only one of those items CMS’s headline figure covers. Medicare.gov’s Open Enrollment page lists the changes available from Oct. 15 to Dec. 7: joining, dropping or switching a Medicare Advantage plan with or without drug coverage, or moving between Medicare Advantage and Original Medicare.
Leaving Medicare Advantage adds steps. Medicare.gov says a person in Original Medicare who wants drug coverage joins a separate drug plan, and it describes Medigap as extra insurance sold by private companies to help pay a share of Original Medicare’s out-of-pocket costs.
Two clocks apply at once. The plan must receive the request by Dec. 7, and a change made in that window takes effect Jan. 1, according to the page. Members whose income is limited can also ask the Social Security Administration about Extra Help, and SSA says applications can be made online or by phone at 1-800-772-1213, before or after enrolling in Part D. For 2027, Medicare.gov says Extra Help caps copayments at $5.80 for generic drugs and $14.40 for brand-name drugs, and qualifying members pay $0 for plan premiums and deductibles. The 2026 limits on that page are $23,940 in income and $18,090 in resources for an individual, and $32,460 and $36,100 for a couple.
The free route CMS points to for comparing plans is the Medicare Plan Finder and the 1-800-MEDICARE helpline, which the release says is open 24 hours a day.
Picking a replacement when a Medicare Advantage premium or plan changes
For the members outside the eight in 10, the decision runs through premium, drug list and doctors at once, across thousands of plans and a single window in which a change can be made. A lower monthly premium in one plan can be offset by drug or network terms that show up only after enrollment.
The 2027 Medicare Open Enrollment Decision Kit pairs a cost calculator spreadsheet with a provider call script for confirming which doctors a plan works with.
Read how the calculator and call script fit together in The 2027 Medicare Open Enrollment Decision Kit.
This article was produced with AI assistance and checked against the primary sources linked above.
David M. Keller is a finance writer based in Columbus, Ohio, covering personal finance and consumer-focused economic topics. He earned his degree in journalism from Ohio University and began his career reporting on local business and economic trends for a regional media outlet. Since then, he has contributed to a variety of online publications, focusing on clear, practical coverage of topics such as cost of living, debt, and everyday financial decision-making.
