Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, settled at $98.32 a barrel on Friday, up 3 cents, and U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate finished at $90.83, up 31 cents. Both prices closed the week of Nov. 6 far below where they started it, with Brent down more than 13% and WTI down 12.7%, according to The National. That was Brent’s steepest weekly percentage fall since the start of the Covid pandemic.
Oil had been a major driver of what households paid for gasoline and heating through the fall, and a drop of this size changes the picture for anyone budgeting for the coming months. The week’s swings came as the winter heating season got under way, when bills for fuel and power start to matter most for people on fixed incomes.
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How far did oil fall in one week?
The biggest piece of the decline came on Wednesday, the day after the midterm elections. Brent fell 8.7% to $94.62 and WTI fell 8.3% to $88.12, their lowest levels since Aug. 31, The National reported. Friday’s settlements of $98.32 and $90.83 therefore sit above that low but well under the prior week’s levels.
Brazilian news agency coverage of the Friday close put the futures contracts down about 13% over the week, in line with the figure from The National. Early reports during Friday’s trading had put Brent on track for a 17% weekly drop, but that was a projection made before the session ended.
Why did prices fall, then bounce back?
Traders sold oil after Democrats won both chambers of Congress, betting that the result would push Washington toward a diplomatic end to the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, according to the trade outlet OE Digital. The National described the outcome as widely seen as a rebuke of President Donald Trump over the war, and quoted Vice President JD Vance as saying, “The reason we lost is the war. The President himself said so last night.”
Prices recovered some ground Thursday and Friday after tanker attacks in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, OE Digital reported. Iran said three more ships were struck Thursday, and data from the UKMTO maritime security group suggest attacks on oil-carrying ships are near a record pace.
What are analysts saying about the next move?
Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group, said, “A bit of unwinding of the war premium seems to be what’s going on,” as quoted by Reuters. Janiv Shah, an oil market analyst at Rystad, said the crude market is loosening toward oversupply, with spot premiums for Middle Eastern benchmarks returning to levels from before the conflict.
Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM, called Friday’s early rise a technical recovery and said that “until there is a credible path to safer, cheaper transit through the Gulf, oil is likely to remain supported on dips.” John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, said traders were worried about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates after the strong jobs report, which showed 165,000 jobs added in October.
The politics remain unsettled. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday, “Now we will make a decision,” on whether to resume attacks on Iran or pursue an agreement, The National reported. Reuters tied Friday’s small gain to renewed fears of further U.S. strikes.
Supply worries have not gone away. The National said Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers have raised concerns since the Yemeni militia declared a blockade on Saudi shipping in July, and that Saudi Arabia shut its East-West crude pipeline from Sept. 11 to 22 after drone attacks that Riyadh said were launched from Iraq. The Houthis claimed further attacks on pumping stations in late October.
Is cheaper crude reaching the pump?
Some of it already is. AAA’s national average for regular gasoline was $4.04 a gallon on Nov. 7, down from $4.18 a week earlier and $4.37 a month earlier. A year ago the average was $3.08, so drivers are still paying about a dollar more per gallon than in 2025.
Gas stations usually take a week or two to pass crude’s moves along, so another decline in pump prices is possible if oil holds near current levels. A rebound in crude would push the other way.
What does this mean for winter bills?
Oil is only one input into a household’s winter costs. Heating oil follows crude closely, but electricity and natural gas bills depend on other markets and on local utilities’ rates. Anyone on a heating-oil delivery plan should look at when their price is set, since a locked-in rate from the high-price weeks will not fall with crude.
The same war that moved oil has also pushed up inflation and bond yields this year, which is why savers and borrowers both have a stake in the swings. When crude falls sharply, inflation pressure eases, but a rebound can reverse that quickly.
Will falling oil last long enough to ease your winter bills?
Brent fell more than 13% in one week and then bounced on tanker attacks, so the price that sets gasoline and heating-oil costs can swing again before the next bill arrives. Households that count on lower prices, and savers who watch inflation, are betting on a war that Trump says he will soon decide how to handle.
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This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
Warren Cohen is a finance writer based in Phoenix, Arizona, covering personal finance topics including credit, banking, and beginner investing. He earned his degree in business administration from Arizona State University and began his career working in consumer finance, where he gained direct experience with lending and credit systems. He now writes for personal finance websites and fintech platforms, focusing on clear, practical content that helps readers make informed financial decisions.
