U.S. Customs and Border Protection has certified about $126 billion in refunds of the tariffs President Trump imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model. The total runs through October 2 and equals about 76 percent of the roughly $166 billion collected under the struck-down authority.
The money is going to importers, not to shoppers, so the number is not the same as lower prices at the store.
What the $126 billion figure measures
Penn Wharton’s October 14 update on effective tariff rates and revenues states it directly: “CBP has certified approximately $126 billion in refunds through October 2, 2026, about 76 percent of the $166 billion collected.” The model cites the declaration of CBP’s Brandon Lord in Freestyle World, Inc. v. U.S. Customs and Border Protection, filed October 6 in the Court of International Trade. The declaration reports refunds “certified and sent to Treasury” as of October 2.
Certified and sent to Treasury is a step before disbursement, and Supply Chain Dive reports that how much has actually reached businesses has not been stated. The $166 billion total comes from an earlier Lord declaration in Atmus Filtration, Inc. v. United States, filed March 6, which Penn Wharton says is all subject to refund.
Will tariff refunds ever reach consumers?
That is the question for households that paid higher prices on imported goods, and the available answer is no direct path. CBP’s refund system, called CAPE for Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries, launched on April 20. Law firm Manatt’s guidance on the launch says only the importer of record, or the customs broker that filed the entry paperwork, can submit a refund request. Companies that paid the duties but were not the importer of record cannot file.
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Manatt says refunds are issued electronically to importers with banking information on file in CBP’s portal, and that the process includes interest. Nothing in that guidance requires importers to pass any of it on. Whether it shows up in the prices shoppers pay is a decision for each company.
The October 6 phase and the money still ahead
The refund process has moved in stages. Supply Chain Dive reported on October 8 that, per an October 6 court filing, CBP had begun processing some finally liquidated entries, meaning entries whose accounting is closed. That phase is expected to handle roughly $11.4 billion, or 6.9 percent, of the tariffs.
It was not the first expansion. Freight forwarder Expeditors reported that a CBP bulletin published June 23 extended CAPE to entries flagged for reconciliation starting June 29. Entries that already had a reconciliation entry on file were left for a future phase. Each phase has covered a different slice of the same $166 billion.
By Penn Wharton’s own numbers, roughly $40 billion of the $166 billion has not yet been certified. The remainder is still working through CBP’s staged process.
As of October 6, CBP had accepted 477 CAPE declarations covering 425,517 entries for processing, and acceptance is not payment. Only plaintiffs who submitted a valid importer of record number by July 30 can currently receive refunds for finally liquidated entries. Those who submitted later must wait for instructions, and CBP has given no timeframe.
The same report said CAPE had accepted roughly $136.6 billion in potential and certified refunds for processing as of October 2. CBP had first aimed for late July for this phase before delaying to October. “Another important step in the CAPE process,” said Kelly Nelson of KPMG, as quoted by the outlet.
The appeal that could narrow the refunds
The Supreme Court invalidated the IEEPA duties in February, according to Supply Chain Dive. The Justice Department has appealed a trade court order on the finally liquidated entries, arguing the court lacks jurisdiction to issue a universal refund order for all finalized entries and that the ruling should apply only to the parties that sued. The appeal is pending before the Federal Circuit.
That fight bears on the last slice of the refund money. It would decide whether importers that did not sue get the same treatment as those that did.
What the tariff numbers say about prices
The Penn Wharton update also puts the refunds in context. It says the average effective tariff rate stood at 7.1 percent in August 2026, up from 2.3 percent in January 2025 and 6.7 percent in July 2026. New tariffs raised $314.8 billion in gross customs revenue between January 2025 and August 2026, before IEEPA refunds. Penn Wharton says gross revenue would have been $60.7 billion higher without changes in import behavior.
The model makes no statement about whether any refund reaches consumers. For a household, the open question is whether the importers receiving these refunds lower the prices on the goods those tariffs touched. U.S. Customs and Border Protection, at cbp.gov, runs the refund system, and its next court declaration will show how much more has been certified.
Paying more at the store since the tariffs?
Refunds of $126 billion are going to importers, and nothing in the refund process sends a cent of it to households that paid higher prices. The cost of the tariffs stays in grocery, clothing and hardware bills while the refund money moves between companies and Treasury.
The Benefits Checklist turns from the tariff question to the household budget. It scans 11 benefit programs, with the 2026 income limits for each, including SNAP, heating help and property-tax breaks that offset everyday costs. It also comes with a printable application tracker.
See which of 11 benefit programs fit a tariff-squeezed budget with the Benefits Checklist →
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This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by the editorial team.
David M. Keller is a finance writer based in Columbus, Ohio, covering personal finance and consumer-focused economic topics. He earned his degree in journalism from Ohio University and began his career reporting on local business and economic trends for a regional media outlet. Since then, he has contributed to a variety of online publications, focusing on clear, practical coverage of topics such as cost of living, debt, and everyday financial decision-making.
