The National Retail Federation expects Americans to spend $1.013 trillion at stores and online across November and December, a gain of 4.2% over last year. Matthew Shay, the trade group’s president and chief executive, says shoppers will put the holidays first even as they stay mindful of their budgets. It is a forecast, not a count, and consumer prices are climbing nearly as fast as the forecast sales.
The number matters beyond retail. Holiday sales shape store hiring, December discounts and how heavily households lean on credit cards in January. This year the forecast arrives with gasoline up more than a third from a year ago and inflation running near 4%.
What the trillion-dollar total counts
The federation’s Oct. 15 forecast covers retail sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31. It leaves out car dealers, gas stations and restaurants, so it measures core retail, not everything a family spends during the season. Last year’s total came to $972 billion, up 3.1% from 2024, and this year’s pace is faster.
Reuters reported that the forecast comes from an NRF model built on consumer spending, employment, wages and past retail sales, in its coverage of the release. A model built on jobs and paychecks moves if either one weakens. The federation also noted that retail contributes $5.3 trillion to the nation’s annual economic output and supports one in four U.S. jobs.
For households, the open question is the one a national total cannot answer: how does a bigger national number turn into a budget at one kitchen table? People living on a Social Security check or a pension face the same shelf prices as everyone else, but their income resets once a year. Anyone planning gifts, hosting or travel has to set a spending cap now, before December card statements arrive.
What changed this year: Social Security and Medicare change every year, and nobody sends you a memo. The Retirement Money Brief breaks down what changed and what to do.
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Prices take most of the 4.2%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Oct. 14 that its consumer price index rose 3.7% over the 12 months ending in September. Gasoline jumped 34.2% over the same stretch, and food rose 2.5%. Groceries for the holiday table are rising slower than the average basket, so the squeeze is coming mostly from energy. Gas stations sit outside the federation’s forecast, but the pump price still decides how much cash is left over for gifts.
The Census Bureau’s September retail report shows the pressure from the other side. Retail and food-service sales reached $745.0 billion, up 0.8% from August and 6.3% from September 2025. That broader measure includes gas stations and restaurants, so higher pump prices lift the total.
Put the two next to each other and the gap is small. A forecast of 4.2% growth against 3.7% inflation means a household buying exactly last year’s list would pay close to 4% more without adding a single gift. Real growth in what Americans actually carry out of stores is a thin slice of the headline.
Retailers plan their hiring with caution
The federation expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers this season. The group estimated 356,000 seasonal jobs in 2025, so the midpoint of this year’s range, 350,000, sits just under last year’s estimate. NRF says retailers are being careful because of higher gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and elevated consumer debt.
Even the top of that range, 375,000, would be only about 19,000 above last year’s estimate, and the bottom, 325,000, would be 31,000 below it. Stores are not staffing up for a boom. They are staffing for a season they expect to be steady.
Mark Mathews, NRF’s chief economist and head of research, calls consumers “the bright spot in the economy.” He adds that inflation, gas prices and household spending pressure will hit income groups differently. Reuters reported that Walmart, Kohl’s and American Eagle have each flagged pressure on consumer spending heading into the season.
That split is the part of the forecast that an average hides. A trillion-dollar total can grow 4.2% while some households trim gifts and others, with steady paychecks and savings, spend more.
Reading a forecast with a household cap in hand
NRF’s own language is careful. Shay says shoppers will prioritize the season “even as they remain mindful of their budgets.” That describes a spending plan with a ceiling on it, not an open wallet. The federation has not said how the 4.2% divides between higher prices and more goods sold.
The exclusions matter at home too. A family that eats out, drives to visit relatives or fills the tank for a holiday trip is spending money the $1.013 trillion never counts. A realistic household cap has to include the restaurant bills and the tank of gas that the national forecast leaves out.
A household can apply the same arithmetic to its own December. Last year’s total across gifts, food and travel, plus roughly the 3.7% that consumer prices have risen, is what the same season costs this year before anything new goes on the list. Whatever a family sets above or below that figure is a choice, not an accident.
The forecast will be tested against real sales after the season ends, and the federation has not announced when it will report holiday results. Until then, the open question for anyone on a fixed income stays practical: which bills will take the first bite of a December that costs about 4% more?
Is a fixed-income December ready for prices up 3.7%?
A holiday season with gasoline up 34.2% and consumer prices up 3.7% lands hardest on households whose Social Security check or pension adjusts only once a year. The gap tends to show up in January, on the card statement.
That is a different job from holiday budgeting, and it is the one The Benefits Checklist finishes. It scans eleven benefit programs retirees most often miss, including Medicare Savings Programs, Extra Help, SNAP and heating help, with the 2026 income limits. Part 4 covers SNAP, heating help and free weatherization, the bills that take a bite out of a December cap.
Get the 11-program benefits checklist with 2026 income limits before December bills land →
More Financial Reading
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- 21 Ways Retirees Can Raise $1,000 Fast Without a Job
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by the editorial team.
Warren Cohen is a finance writer based in Phoenix, Arizona, covering personal finance topics including credit, banking, and beginner investing. He earned his degree in business administration from Arizona State University and began his career working in consumer finance, where he gained direct experience with lending and credit systems. He now writes for personal finance websites and fintech platforms, focusing on clear, practical content that helps readers make informed financial decisions.
