Health insurers are pulling out of the Medicare Advantage market at a pace the program has never seen, and the fallout is landing on older Americans who assumed their coverage was settled. A new analysis from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health estimates that as many as 2.9 million Medicare Advantage members — roughly one in ten — are being pushed off their plans in the current wave of exits, and that in 12 states more than one in five members are losing their coverage outright. Carriers including Humana and Presbyterian Health Plan are now carrying those retreats into 2027, which means many retirees face the same scramble a second year in a row.
How Large the Medicare Advantage Retreat Has Grown
Forced disenrollment — being dropped because an insurer stops offering a plan, not because a member chose to leave — used to be rare. The Johns Hopkins researchers found that the annual rate averaged just over 1 percent between 2018 and 2024, then jumped to 6.9 percent in 2025 and is expected to reach about 10 percent this year. That is a roughly tenfold increase in the share of members whose plan simply disappears from under them.
The geography is uneven. In a dozen states, more than 20 percent of Medicare Advantage members are affected, and Vermont has been hit hardest of all, with the overwhelming majority of the state’s enrollees losing their plan. For a retiree on a fixed income, a plan exit is not a paperwork nuisance — it can mean a new provider network, a different drug formulary, and a fresh set of out-of-pocket costs to sort out before the coverage year begins.
The reversal is striking because Medicare Advantage spent the past decade growing into the way most beneficiaries get their coverage, now enrolling more than half of everyone on Medicare. The plans drew seniors with low or zero premiums and extra perks such as dental and vision coverage. That expansion was built on generous federal payments and steady growth, and the current retreat suggests insurers no longer see the same math working in every county they once entered.
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Why Humana and Presbyterian Are Leaving Markets for 2027
The exits are not a one-time correction. Humana is trimming its Medicare Advantage footprint for a second consecutive year, with its 2027 pullback expected to move roughly 600,000 members out of plans across multiple markets, according to reporting on the carrier withdrawals. Presbyterian Health Plan is exiting most of its markets for 2027 as well, a decision that touches roughly 30,000 members.
Insurers describe the moves as a shift toward profitability over sheer enrollment growth, after years of aggressive expansion, rising medical costs, and tighter federal payment rules squeezed margins. Whatever the corporate rationale, the practical result for a member is the same: a plan that existed this year will not exist next year, and the coverage decision reopens whether the member wanted it to or not.
The Non-Renewal Notices Arriving by Late September
Members who are losing a plan are not left to discover it on their own. Insurers must send a formal non-renewal notice — often called an Annual Notice of Change or a plan-termination letter — before the enrollment season opens, generally by around the end of September. That letter is the official warning that a plan is ending or changing materially, and it explains the member’s options.
The notices are easy to mistake for routine mail, which is part of the risk. A retiree who sets the envelope aside can reach January still enrolled in nothing, and a lapse in Medicare drug coverage can carry its own long-term penalty. Reading the letter closely, and noting whether it says the plan is being discontinued entirely, is the first step in deciding what comes next.
The Fall Window to Switch Plans or Return to Original Medicare
The main chance to act is Medicare’s Annual Enrollment Period, which runs from October 15 through December 7 each year. During that window a member can pick a new Medicare Advantage plan or move back to Original Medicare, with coverage taking effect January 1. Anyone whose plan is being terminated may also qualify for a special enrollment period that extends beyond the standard deadline.
Before settling on a replacement plan, the details worth checking are the ones that quietly drive cost. A new Medicare Advantage plan may cover different doctors and hospitals, place a longtime prescription on a higher tier or drop it entirely, and set different limits on annual out-of-pocket spending. A plan that looks similar on premium alone can carry very different bills once a member actually uses it, so comparing networks and drug formularies matters as much as comparing the monthly price.
The decision that deserves the most attention is the one that is hardest to reverse later: whether to return to Original Medicare and add a Medigap supplement. Members who leave Medicare Advantage in this situation can sometimes buy a Medigap policy with guaranteed-issue rights, meaning an insurer cannot deny coverage or charge more for prior health conditions. That protection is tied to specific windows, and once it closes, a supplement can become far more expensive or unavailable. For a retiree weighing options this fall, the size and timing of that window can shape the cost of coverage for years.
This article was researched and drafted with the assistance of AI and reviewed by The Financial Wire editorial team.
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David M. Keller is a finance writer based in Columbus, Ohio, covering personal finance and consumer-focused economic topics. He earned his degree in journalism from Ohio University and began his career reporting on local business and economic trends for a regional media outlet. Since then, he has contributed to a variety of online publications, focusing on clear, practical coverage of topics such as cost of living, debt, and everyday financial decision-making.
