Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 will not become official until the Social Security Administration’s October 14 announcement, but The Senior Citizens League has already published what it calls its final forecast: 3.5 percent. If that estimate holds, it would be the largest annual raise beneficiaries have seen since 2023, arriving after cost-of-living increases of 3.2 percent, 2.5 percent and 2.8 percent over the three years since. For the tens of millions of people who draw a Social Security or SSI check, the size of that adjustment shapes next year’s grocery, rent and prescription budgets well before Washington confirms a single figure.
TSCL's Final Forecast Puts the Raise at 3.5 Percent
The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan advocacy group that tracks Social Security and Medicare policy on behalf of its members, runs a statistical model every month that folds in the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate and the national unemployment rate to project the coming year’s cost-of-living adjustment. The model has produced a new estimate each month since the current COLA cycle opened, sliding up and down as fresh inflation data replaced older assumptions, and the group describes each successive reading as a refinement rather than a final answer until the very last month before Social Security’s own announcement.
That refinement arrived on September 11, when TSCL said its model now points to a 2027 COLA of 3.5 percent, a figure it is calling the organization’s final prediction ahead of the Social Security Administration’s own announcement next month. The new estimate is a tenth of a percentage point below what TSCL projected the month before, a reminder that even a “final” forecast still moves with the data feeding it.
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The August Inflation Reading That Set the Number
Social Security’s COLA is not set by a survey of retirees or a political negotiation; it comes from a fixed formula written into law. Each year, the government averages the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, known as the CPI-W, across July, August and September, then compares that average to the same three months a year earlier. Whatever percentage the index rose becomes the following year’s COLA, with no discretion for the Social Security Administration to adjust it up or down.
Two of those three months are now in the books. The July CPI-W came in at 3.4 percent and the August reading, published the same day as TSCL’s forecast, came in at 3.5 percent, which is why the group is treating its estimate as close to final even though the September number, due in mid-October, could still nudge the outcome slightly higher or lower.
What 3.5 Percent Would Mean for the Average Check
TSCL’s projection is built on the benefit levels Social Security already reports. The average monthly Social Security check across all beneficiaries was $1,938 as of June 2026, the most recent month for which the agency had published data, while retired workers alone averaged $2,084 because that figure excludes the lower disability and survivor benefits included in the broader average.
Using the $1,940.08 average TSCL cites specifically for its forecast, a 3.5 percent COLA would add about $67.90 a month, lifting the typical check to roughly $2,007.98 if the estimate holds through the official October 14 announcement. TSCL frames that arithmetic simply: a beneficiary drawing $2,000 a month today would see a check of about $2,070 once the raise takes effect on January 1.
Why the Real Number Waits Until October 14
The Social Security Administration will not calculate the actual 2027 COLA until the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the September CPI-W, the last of the three monthly readings the formula requires; that release, paired with the July and August figures already recorded, is what the agency will use to finalize its announcement on October 14. TSCL’s executive director, Shannon Benton, said the group is watching for short-term economic shocks over the next 30 days that could still move the final number, since two of the three CPI-W readings the formula depends on are already locked in.
Whatever percentage the SSA announces on October 14, it will not change a single check before January 1, 2027. Beneficiaries currently receiving the 2026 COLA of 2.8 percent will keep that rate through the end of this year regardless of how close TSCL’s forecast turns out to be.
Why TSCL Says Even a Higher COLA Still Falls Short
TSCL’s own research argues that even a 3.5 percent raise will not fully restore what inflation has taken from retirees’ budgets. The group’s 2026 Loss of Buying Power report found that the average Social Security payment has lost roughly 13.7 percent of its purchasing power since 2010, a gap the group attributes to the index used to calculate the COLA.
TSCL argues the CPI-W, which measures prices for urban wage earners rather than retirees, underweights housing and medical care relative to the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly, or CPI-E, a separate index the Bureau of Labor Statistics also publishes. The group has proposed replacing the CPI-W with a blended index it calls the CPI-BEST, which it calculates would have produced an average COLA of about 4.0 percent over the last decade instead of 2.8 percent.
The Three Prior COLAs the Estimate Would Beat
A 3.5 percent adjustment would be higher than each of the past three COLAs: 3.2 percent for 2024, 2.5 percent for 2025 and 2.8 percent for 2026. TSCL’s own historical tracking puts the projected 2027 figure 19th among the COLAs the Social Security Administration has calculated using the CPI-W methodology since 1977, with the last larger adjustment being the 8.7 percent COLA that took effect in 2023.
The Benefits a Raise Does Not Reach
A COLA increase changes only the benefit formula itself; it does nothing for the separate assistance programs that help cover what a raise does not reach, such as Medicare premiums or a shortfall between a fixed income and the cost of living. Medicare Savings Programs, which can pay a beneficiary’s Part B premium and other cost-sharing, and SSI after 65, which can add a monthly payment on top of Social Security for those with limited income and resources, both require a separate application that the Social Security Administration does not send out automatically alongside the annual COLA notice. Many older households qualify for one or both without ever applying, since neither program is triggered by turning a certain age or by the COLA announcement itself.
The guide sets out all eleven programs over 69 pages, with the 2026 limits for each and a 50-state phone directory, plus a printable tracker.
Read through all eleven programs and their 2026 limits in The Benefits Checklist.
Portions of this article were drafted with AI assistance and reviewed before it went live.
David M. Keller is a finance writer based in Columbus, Ohio, covering personal finance and consumer-focused economic topics. He earned his degree in journalism from Ohio University and began his career reporting on local business and economic trends for a regional media outlet. Since then, he has contributed to a variety of online publications, focusing on clear, practical coverage of topics such as cost of living, debt, and everyday financial decision-making.
