Medicare’s Part B deductible is on track to rise again in 2027, according to new projections from the program’s own actuaries. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) trustees estimate the annual deductible will climb to $292, a $9 increase over the $283 deductible now in effect for 2026. The figure comes from the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report and will not be finalized until CMS issues its official 2027 rate announcement later this year.
The 2026 Trustees Report’s Part B Estimate
The Boards of Trustees for the Medicare trust funds released their 61st annual report on the program’s finances in June 2026. Buried in the supplementary section on Part B financing is a nine-year table projecting the standard monthly premium and annual deductible through the middle of the next decade. For 2027, the trustees put the Part B deductible at $292, up from the $283 amount enrollees are paying this year, an increase of roughly 3.2 percent that tracks closely with the pace of projected premium growth. The same table projects the standard Part B premium rising to about $209.50 a month in 2027, from $202.90 this year.
That $292 figure is explicitly a projection, not a locked-in number. CMS actuaries build the trustees’ estimates using assumptions about future health spending, enrollment, and program utilization that are updated annually. The deductible and premium that will actually apply in 2027 are set separately, typically announced by CMS in November 2026, after actuaries have folded in a full year of updated claims data on physician visits, outpatient procedures, and Part B drug costs.
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How CMS Set the Current $283 Deductible
The $283 deductible now in effect for 2026 was finalized in a rule CMS published in the Federal Register in November 2025, alongside a standard Part B monthly premium of $202.90. Both figures rose from 2025 levels of $257 and $185, respectively, driven largely by projected growth in Part B spending on physician services, outpatient care, and prescription drugs administered in clinical settings. Under Part B, the deductible functions as a once-a-year threshold: a beneficiary with no other coverage generally pays for covered outpatient and physician services out of pocket until cumulative costs for the year reach the deductible amount, at which point Medicare begins paying its usual 80 percent share.
The official Medicare costs page lists the current premium and deductible alongside a note that Part B costs are reviewed and adjusted annually based on program spending. The deductible applies before Medicare Advantage or Medigap supplemental rules take over cost-sharing for many beneficiaries. A beneficiary enrolled in a Medigap Plan G or Plan N policy, for example, still owes the Part B deductible directly, since neither plan covers it, while older Medigap plans sold to beneficiaries who qualified before 2020 may cover the amount depending on the plan type.
What Is Pushing the Projected 2027 Increase
The trustees’ report ties much of the projected cost growth in Part B to rising use of high-cost specialty drugs, including GLP-1 medications increasingly prescribed for weight management and diabetes, along with continued growth in outpatient hospital billing and physician fee-schedule spending. Coverage of these drugs, and the cost of administering them, is one factor cited in MOAA’s summary of the trustees’ findings as actuaries revised near-term Part B spending estimates upward compared with the prior year’s report.
For a retiree living on a fixed income, a Part B deductible increase of the projected size is a modest but real addition to yearly health costs. A beneficiary who needs even one outpatient procedure, specialist visit, or diagnostic test early in the year could face the full deductible amount before Medicare’s cost-sharing begins. Combined with the projected premium increase, the trustees’ estimate points to somewhat higher total out-of-pocket Part B costs across 2027, even before accounting for any Part D or Medicare Advantage plan changes announced separately each fall.
Why the Final Number Could Still Move
Deductible figures published in a mid-year trustees report have, in past cycles, differed from the amount CMS ultimately finalizes for the following January. The 2025 Medicare Trustees Report, released a year earlier, projected the 2026 Part B deductible would reach $288. When CMS finalized the actual 2026 rate months later, the deductible came in at $283, five dollars below the earlier trustees’ estimate. That gap illustrates why the newly projected $292 figure for 2027 is best treated as a directional estimate rather than a guaranteed number.
The trustees report is built on a multi-year actuarial model designed to project the trust funds’ long-term financial condition, while the annual rate announcement incorporates the most current data available on enrollment, per-beneficiary spending, and program experience through the fall. A household budgeting for 2027 health costs should treat the $292 figure as a working estimate, watching for CMS’s formal announcement, expected around November 2026, the same process that confirmed the current $283 deductible and $202.90 premium in November 2025.
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by The Financial Wire editorial team.
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David M. Keller is a finance writer based in Columbus, Ohio, covering personal finance and consumer-focused economic topics. He earned his degree in journalism from Ohio University and began his career reporting on local business and economic trends for a regional media outlet. Since then, he has contributed to a variety of online publications, focusing on clear, practical coverage of topics such as cost of living, debt, and everyday financial decision-making.
