60% of U.S. companies brace for 2026 layoffs as economic uncertainty grows

Nearly six in ten U.S. companies say they expect to cut staff in 2026, a striking sign that corporate caution is shaping workforce plans even before the labor market shows a broad-based wave of new layoffs. For workers trying to read the economy, that creates an uneasy split between what employers say may be coming and what the hard data has shown so far. That disconnect matters. Companies are talking more openly about cost control, slower hiring, tariff pressure, and the need to reorganize around artificial intelligence. Yet official labor indicators entering 2026 still pointed to a job market that was cooling more through restrained hiring than through widespread firing. The result is a labor picture that looks stable on the surface while business sentiment underneath has turned much more defensive.

What the survey actually found

A Resume.org survey of 1,000 U.S. business leaders, fielded in September 2025, found that 58% of companies planned layoffs in 2026. That is the core fact behind the headline. In other words, “60%” is fair shorthand, but the exact figure in the survey was 58%. The same survey showed that many employers were already moving into a more defensive posture well before any 2026 cuts arrived. According to the findings, 41% said they had cut back on hiring, 9% had implemented hiring freezes, and only 9% said they had increased hiring. Among companies scaling back, 63% blamed economic conditions, 38% cited tariff or trade policy concerns, 35% pointed to declining revenue, and 22% said AI was reducing staffing needs.

Key takeaway

58%

of surveyed companies said they planned layoffs in 2026

41%

said they had already cut back on hiring

9%

said they had increased hiring over the prior year

That does not mean six in ten companies were actively laying off workers when the survey was taken. It means six in ten said layoffs were part of their 2026 plans. That distinction is important, but the breadth of the sentiment still says something meaningful about how corporate America was entering the year.

Hard labor data was still more stable than the surveys suggested

The official numbers did not yet show the kind of labor market break implied by those plans. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said layoffs and discharges in October 2025 were little changed at 1.9 million, or 1.2% of employment. That is not the profile of a labor market already in free fall. Layoff announcements also looked uneven rather than relentless. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that U.S. employers announced 35,553 job cuts in December 2025, down 50% from November and the lowest monthly total in 17 months. At the same time, the firm said 2025 as a whole produced more than 1.2 million announced cuts, the highest annual total since 2020. That combination helps explain the mood going into 2026: layoffs were not exploding at that moment, but the prior year had left executives noticeably more cautious. Weekly unemployment claims told a similar story. In the week ending January 24, initial claims fell to 209,000, according to Reuters’ report on Labor Department data, a level still consistent with historically low layoffs. So while workers were hearing louder warnings from employers, the most immediate indicators still pointed to a market that was cooling through slower hiring rather than broad job shedding.

Tariffs, slower growth, and AI were all part of the backdrop

The anxiety in the survey did not appear out of nowhere. Executives were heading into 2026 with a mix of cost pressures and planning uncertainty. A Duke Fuqua and Federal Reserve CFO survey found tariffs remained the top concern among finance chiefs, while firms expected product and service prices to rise by a median 3.5% in 2026. That survey is useful because it shows where the pressure was building, even if it did not mirror the Resume.org layoff result. CFOs were not broadly forecasting payroll cuts across the board. In fact, most expected employment growth, with 59% planning to increase headcount and only 15% planning reductions. Still, the survey reinforced the idea that many companies were budgeting for a slower, more expensive operating environment in 2026. AI was another factor hanging over workforce planning. Resume.org found that 35% of employers planning or conducting layoffs cited AI adoption, and 37% said they expected to replace roles with AI by the end of 2026. That does not mean technology alone was driving the outlook, but it does suggest some companies were no longer treating automation as a distant possibility. In some industries, it had already moved into budgeting and staffing decisions.

Why the gap between plans and reality matters

The most important thing for readers is not to confuse a survey of corporate intentions with a confirmed layoff wave. Intentions can change quickly if growth holds up, tariff pressure eases, or consumer spending proves stronger than expected. A company that tells a pollster it may cut jobs next year can still end up freezing hiring instead, delaying expansion, or trimming contractors rather than full-time staff. But the survey should not be dismissed either. When a majority of business leaders say layoffs are on the table, that is a real signal about how employers are thinking. Even before pink slips arrive, those expectations can shape behavior. Workers may become less willing to quit, managers may pull back on recruiting, and companies may delay investments while they wait for more clarity.

What workers should actually take from it

The cleanest reading of the data is that employers were entering 2026 with a darker view of the economy than the labor market itself had yet confirmed. The headline is attention-grabbing, but it is not baseless. Roughly six in ten surveyed companies did say they were bracing for layoffs. What the evidence did not show, at least entering late January, was that those plans had already translated into a full-scale national layoff surge. For workers, that argues for realism, not panic. The immediate risk was not a labor market collapse overnight. It was a stretch of slower hiring, tighter budgets, and more selective staffing decisions as companies weighed tariffs, growth worries, and AI-driven reorganization. If the hard data later starts to move in the same direction as the surveys, the warnings will look prescient. If it does not, 2026 may instead be remembered as a year when corporate caution ran ahead of economic reality.