Filling up the car keeps getting more expensive, and the White House just signaled it doesn’t expect relief anytime soon.
On April 24, 2026, President Trump extended an emergency waiver of the Jones Act for another 90 days, allowing foreign-flagged tankers to haul oil and natural gas between U.S. ports. The move is a tacit acknowledgment that the crisis choking off the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage between Iran and Oman that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, is nowhere near over.
The extension renews a measure first activated on March 17, when U.S. Customs and Border Protection suspended the century-old requirement that only American-built, American-crewed vessels move cargo between domestic ports. Under the legal authority of 46 U.S.C. Section 501, the Secretary of Defense can grant such exemptions during national emergencies. By renewing rather than letting the waiver lapse, the administration effectively told markets and consumers to brace for a long disruption.
A waterway under siege
Escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities, repeated missile strikes near oil infrastructure, and the pullback of commercial tanker traffic have turned the Strait of Hormuz into something close to a no-go zone. The Washington Post reported that the disruption is intertwined with broader regional cease-fire negotiations and ongoing naval confrontations, describing conditions that amount to a de facto closure of the waterway.
The price impact has been severe. Brent crude front-month futures climbed from roughly $61 per barrel at the start of 2026 to well above $100 per barrel by late March, with some trading sessions reportedly approaching $118, though independently verifiable closing-price data for that peak has not been published in a linkable source. The national average for regular gasoline reached roughly $4 a gallon around the end of March, while diesel climbed above $5, based on figures consistent with the EIA’s weekly retail fuel survey, though the agency’s public page does not break out the specific daily figures cited here.
The EIA’s March 10 Short-Term Energy Outlook tied its revised price forecasts directly to Middle East supply disruptions, warning that continued instability around Hormuz would keep upward pressure on crude benchmarks through the rest of the year.
What the Jones Act waiver actually does
Under normal circumstances, the Jones Act (formally the Merchant Marine Act of 1920) requires that goods shipped between U.S. ports travel on vessels that are American-built, American-owned, and American-crewed. The law was designed to sustain a domestic shipbuilding base and merchant fleet, but it also limits the number of tankers available for coastwise trade. When Gulf Coast refineries need to send fuel to the East Coast, the pool of eligible ships is small and chartering rates are steep.
The emergency waiver opens those routes to foreign-flagged vessels. Companies using the exemption must file post-voyage reports with the Maritime Administration, which published its latest compliance spreadsheet on April 23, one day before the extension was announced.
This is not unprecedented. After Hurricanes Harvey and Maria in 2017, the Department of Homeland Security temporarily lifted Jones Act restrictions to speed fuel deliveries to storm-ravaged areas. But the current waiver is broader in scope and longer in duration, reflecting a sustained geopolitical crisis rather than a single weather event.
The gaps in what we know
For all the urgency behind the waiver, basic questions about its real-world impact remain unanswered.
The actual volume of oil and gas moved under the exemption since March has not been broken out publicly. MARAD’s compliance spreadsheet tracks vessels, flags, and cargo categories, but the agency has not released summary data that would let analysts or lawmakers gauge whether the waiver has meaningfully boosted domestic supply or simply served as a backstop that few companies have needed.
The severity of the Hormuz disruption itself shifts day to day. Insurance costs, naval escort availability, and ad hoc cease-fire windows all determine whether commercial tankers attempt the passage. Calling it a “de facto closure” captures the broad reality but obscures significant variation from one week to the next.
Then there is the domestic political dimension. Maritime labor unions and American shipbuilders have long opposed Jones Act waivers, viewing the law as essential to maintaining a viable U.S. merchant fleet and the jobs tied to it. No public statements from those groups about this specific extension have surfaced, but a second renewal could test the informal truce that wartime conditions have so far held together.
Perhaps the most pressing question for consumers is how much relief the waiver can actually deliver at the pump. U.S. gasoline and diesel prices are set against global crude benchmarks. Even if foreign-flagged tankers reduce the cost of moving domestic barrels from the Gulf Coast to East and West Coast refineries, the savings at the register are likely to be modest as long as Brent stays above $100. Regional price gaps could narrow, but the broader price shock is driven by a global supply deficit that no shipping rule can fix on its own.
Three developments that will shape fuel costs this summer
The 90-day clock on the renewed waiver runs into late July 2026. Between now and then, three developments will determine whether prices stabilize or keep climbing.
The fate of the Strait of Hormuz. This matters more than any domestic policy lever. If cease-fire talks produce a durable agreement that reopens the waterway to commercial traffic, crude benchmarks could drop fast and the waiver would become a footnote. If hostilities intensify, the administration may face pressure to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve or pursue additional emergency measures.
Transparency on shipping data. MARAD’s compliance records will eventually reveal whether the waiver changed shipping patterns in a measurable way. Energy analysts and congressional oversight committees are likely to push for more detailed disclosures as the summer driving season ramps up and fuel demand rises.
The politics of the Jones Act. A temporary wartime exception is one thing. A prolonged waiver stretching into autumn would hand opponents of the law fresh ammunition to argue that cabotage restrictions raise costs for American consumers even in peacetime. Supporters will counter that weakening the Jones Act undermines national security by shrinking the domestic fleet. That debate, largely dormant for years, is now closer to the surface than it has been in decades, and the outcome could reshape U.S. maritime policy well beyond this crisis.
David M. Keller is a finance writer based in Columbus, Ohio, covering personal finance and consumer-focused economic topics. He earned his degree in journalism from Ohio University and began his career reporting on local business and economic trends for a regional media outlet. Since then, he has contributed to a variety of online publications, focusing on clear, practical coverage of topics such as cost of living, debt, and everyday financial decision-making.
