Restaurant meal prices are forecast to rise 2.6% in 2027, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its first outlook that covers next year. The forecast comes from the Economic Research Service’s Food Price Outlook, released Sept. 25, where restaurant and other away-from-home food is one of three headline categories. It is a slowdown from the 3.5% the same report projects for 2026, but it still runs ahead of the 1.8% expected for groceries in 2027.
Restaurant menus cool from 3.5% to 2.6%
The ERS summary findings put the 2026 increase for food away from home at 3.5%, with a prediction interval of 3.3% to 3.8%. For 2027 the central estimate falls to 2.6%, inside a much wider interval of 0.2% to 5.1%. Both are calendar-year forecasts, and the 2027 numbers are the first ones ERS has published for next year. The 2026 figure is itself a forecast because the year is not over, though August’s actual year-over-year reading of 3.4% for food away from home, reported in the same summary, sits close to it.
The same release trims the outlook for all food, which is forecast to rise 2.9% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. ERS lists Hayden Stewart, Diansheng Dong and Wilson Sinclair as the contacts for the outlook. Among the three headline categories, restaurant prices are projected to keep the fastest pace in 2027: at 2.6%, they sit 0.6 percentage point above the all-food figure and 0.8 point above groceries.
Grocery prices are projected to rise less than menu prices
Food at home, the grocery part of the outlook, is forecast to rise 1.8% in 2027 after 2.4% in 2026. The 2027 interval for groceries is the widest in the release, running from a 5.0% decline to a 9.2% increase. Inside 2026 the picture is uneven: the same summary projects eggs down 29.4%, while beef and veal are forecast up 9.4% and fresh vegetables up 5.7%, so a 1.8% average for next year follows a year in which individual items moved far more than the average.
Recent actual data point the same direction. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in its August consumer price index release, published Sept. 11, that food away from home rose 0.3% in August while food at home was unchanged over the month. Overall prices were up 3.4% from a year earlier before seasonal adjustment, and energy was up 16.3% over 12 months, driven by a 27.4% rise in gasoline. ERS’s own summary puts the August year-over-year increase at 3.4% for food away from home and 2.2% for food at home.
A wide interval around a single number
A forecast of 2.6% is a midpoint, not a promise. ERS says its Food Price Outlook forecasts annual food price changes up to 18 months ahead and builds them from the most recent BLS consumer and producer price index data. The September summary adds that its forecasting methods “are based entirely on statistical models that are fitted to recent trends in the data.”
A model fitted to recent trends extends what has already been happening, so a sudden move in energy costs, wages or supply would enter the forecast only as the data catch up. The interval for 2027 restaurant prices spans nearly five percentage points, from 0.2% to 5.1%. In dollar terms, each $100 spent at restaurants would cost about $102.60 a year later at the central estimate, and anywhere from about $100.20 to $105.10 across the interval.
How 2.6% compares with the 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment
For households living on Social Security, the benchmark is the annual cost-of-living adjustment. The Social Security Administration’s COLA page lists the latest adjustment as 2.8% for Social Security benefits and SSI payments, effective December 2025. It says COLAs are based on increases in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, comparing the third-quarter average of the current year with the third-quarter average of the last year in which a COLA took effect. The page carries no 2027 figure.
Set side by side, the 2026 forecast for restaurant meals, 3.5%, runs 0.7 percentage point above the 2.8% adjustment, while the 2027 forecast of 2.6% sits 0.2 point below it. The comparison is loose. The adjustment follows a broad index, and a household’s restaurant spending is only one slice of it, but it shows which way the gap is expected to move between this year and next.
Eating out is tracked as its own spending category
ERS’s Food Expenditure Series, updated Sept. 18, sorts food spending into four product types: food at home, food away from home, alcohol at home and alcohol away from home, with national data starting in 1997. Because the categories are tracked separately, the two food forecasts can diverge, as the 2027 gap between 2.6% and 1.8% shows. ERS typically releases its monthly forecast update on the 25th, and the Food Price Outlook page lists the next release as Oct. 23, 2026, the first chance to see whether the 2027 projections change.
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This article was produced with AI assistance and checked against the primary sources linked above.
David M. Keller is a finance writer based in Columbus, Ohio, covering personal finance and consumer-focused economic topics. He earned his degree in journalism from Ohio University and began his career reporting on local business and economic trends for a regional media outlet. Since then, he has contributed to a variety of online publications, focusing on clear, practical coverage of topics such as cost of living, debt, and everyday financial decision-making.
