Redfin estimates that 1,510,784 home sellers were in the market in September, against only 928,892 buyers, so sellers outnumbered buyers by 62.6 percent. The brokerage says that is the widest gap in its records, which date to 2013, and the fourth month in a row the gap has set a record. In 41 of the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas, sellers now outnumber buyers by more than 10 percent, which Redfin classes as a buyer’s market.
The counts are Redfin’s estimates of people actively in the market, not completed sales. Buyers fell 2.4 percent from August, the fifth straight monthly decline, and sit at the lowest level in the series. Sellers rose 1.2 percent and are at their highest since March 2020. In August the gap was 56.9 percent.
Fewer buyers, and homes that sit
Redfin’s September buyers-versus-sellers report, dated October 14, blames rising mortgage rates and home prices that have stayed high for pushing buyers out. Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin, called it “a buyer’s market born out of caution, not strength.” The report adds that it is “only a buyer’s market for people who can afford to buy.”
Khan said buyers with a budget and job security can “be picky, negotiate and even walk away if the deal doesn’t make sense financially.” The supply side is building because many listed homes are not selling. Redfin says the number of homes on the market is rising largely because many of them are lingering without finding buyers, and new listings keep adding to the pile. Some owners who do not have to move may pull their homes off the market, the report says, because they have home equity and the job market is relatively strong.
Where Redfin draws the line
Redfin calls a metro a buyer’s market when there are more than 10 percent more sellers than buyers. It is a seller’s market when there are more than 10 percent fewer sellers than buyers, and balanced when the two are within 10 percent of each other. Of the 50 largest metros, 41 were buyer’s markets in September, the most Redfin has recorded. Five were seller’s markets and four were balanced.
That sorting is the practical question for anyone with a home to sell or a purchase planned this fall: which of the three labels fits the metro where the house sits? The answer varies sharply by region, and it decides how much room a buyer has to negotiate and how long a seller may wait.
The Federal Reserve meets October 27 and 28, the next date on the calendar that can move the mortgage rates holding buyers back.
Get the deadline alerts before they pass →
Miami and Tampa carry the biggest surpluses
Miami had 158.9 percent more sellers than buyers in September, up from 134.5 percent in August. Tampa was next at 103.7 percent, up from 82.2 percent, and Warren, Michigan, was third at 47.1 percent, up from 27.3 percent. Nashville and Houston were also in the top three for the second month running, though Redfin gave no figures for them.
The 13 most lopsided buyer’s markets each had more than twice as many sellers as buyers, and every one is in the Sun Belt. Four are in Texas and four are in Florida. Redfin ties the pattern to heavy homebuilding that has added inventory, and says Florida buyers also face rising homeowners association dues and insurance costs.
The surplus grew in nearly every buyer’s market. Only two shrank: Detroit, to 37.9 percent from 46.5 percent, and St. Louis, to 24.5 percent from 26.9 percent. Boston moved from roughly even in August to 7.4 percent more sellers than buyers, and Providence, Rhode Island, flipped from 7.4 percent fewer sellers than buyers to 2.4 percent more.
Five metros where sellers still have the edge
Five large metros stayed seller’s markets for the second month: Nassau County, New York, with 28.6 percent fewer sellers than buyers; Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, with 22.7 percent fewer; Newark, New Jersey, with 18.5 percent fewer; Milwaukee, with 16.1 percent fewer; and San Francisco, with 10.6 percent fewer.
Prices show the split. In August, home sale prices in those five markets rose an average of 6.4 percent from a year earlier, while prices across buyer’s markets rose about 1 percent. Redfin says limited construction keeps supply tight around New York, and that wealth tied to artificial intelligence has added sales and buyer competition in San Francisco.
Rates near 7.4 percent keep buyers on the sidelines
Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.40 percent on October 8, up from 7.28 percent a week earlier and 6.30 percent a year before. The 15-year rate was 6.73 percent. Redfin’s news page shows the national median sale price in September at $393,895, up 1.3 percent from a year earlier, so the cost of a purchase has risen on the financing side much faster than on the price tag.
The Federal Reserve’s 2026 calendar lists its next policy meeting for October 27 and 28. Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economic research, wrote after the latest inflation report that the odds of a rate hike at that meeting are 50/50. Any move in rates lands on a buyer pool that Redfin says is already at its smallest in 13 years of records.
Testing a local market against the 10 percent line
The national figures do not say what a particular zip code is doing, but Redfin’s 10 percent thresholds can be applied locally. An agent or a listing site can show how many homes are active and how many buyers are under contract in a neighborhood, and the ratio shows whether sellers outnumber buyers by more than the 10 percent that marks a buyer’s market.
Sellers in a buyer’s market face the situation Khan described, with buyers who can be picky. Buyers in the Sun Belt metros at the top of the list face the opposite problem: the supply is there, but costs are high enough that fewer people can use it.
The numbers to watch are the same ones that moved this month: the weekly Freddie Mac rate on Thursdays, the Federal Reserve’s October 27 and 28 meeting, and Redfin’s next count of buyers and sellers, which will show whether the record streak continues.
More Financial Reading
- 24 Ways to Stretch a $2,087 Social Security Check
- 17 Places to Find Your Share of the $4.25 Billion States Give Back
- 20 Medicare Money Moves Now That Part D Caps at $2,400
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by The Financial Wire’s editorial team.
David M. Keller is a finance writer based in Columbus, Ohio, covering personal finance and consumer-focused economic topics. He earned his degree in journalism from Ohio University and began his career reporting on local business and economic trends for a regional media outlet. Since then, he has contributed to a variety of online publications, focusing on clear, practical coverage of topics such as cost of living, debt, and everyday financial decision-making.
