The average American household plans to spend $1,654 on the holidays this year, up 4% from last year, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail survey. The money is moving toward things that can be wrapped. Spending on retail goods is expected to climb 10%, while spending on holiday activities is expected to fall 4%.
The survey describes plans, not receipts, and it reports an average across very different budgets. That average hides the fact that a household earning under $50,000 and one earning over $200,000 are planning seasons that look nothing alike.
What the $1,654 is made of
Deloitte’s 2026 Holiday Retail Survey puts the average at $1,654, up from $1,595 in 2025. Retail goods account for $988 of that, up 10%. Holiday activities such as travel, entertaining and events account for $666, down 4%. The two pieces add up to the total.
The firm polled 4,000 U.S. consumers online from Aug. 26 to Sept. 10, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points. Half of shoppers plan to give an experience, such as tickets or a meal out, up 11 percentage points since 2024. Of those, 79% expect to pair the experience with a physical item, so even experience gifts bring a purchase with them.
So the open question for a household is whether $1,654 is a realistic number for its own season. For people on a fixed income, it is a benchmark to test, not a target to hit. Anyone who sets a budget now should split it the way the survey does, between things bought and things done, so one category does not quietly absorb the other.
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The survey’s own sponsor frames the finding as a retail opportunity. In the words quoted by Chain Store Age, “an opportunity lies in meeting shoppers’ determination to celebrate with clear value.” The same trade report says 79% of respondents are bracing for higher prices this year.
Income sets the budget, not the average
Mass Market Retailers, summarizing the Deloitte results, reports the spread by income. Households earning $200,000 or more plan to spend $3,607 on average. Households earning under $50,000 plan to spend $693. The $1,654 average lands in between and describes neither group.
Age shifts the picture too. Natalie Martini, Deloitte’s vice chair and leader of its U.S. retail and consumer products sector, says that “for the first time in our annual survey, Gen Z and millennials are expected to account for 50% of holiday spending.” Those younger shoppers report better household finances than a year ago, which is part of why the average rose.
Older shoppers plan differently. Among Gen Z shoppers, 49% plan to buy themselves a gift, against 18% of baby boomers. Self-gift spending averages $299 across all shoppers, up 13% from 2025, with men planning $355 and women $245.
Technology splits budgets as well. Shoppers who use search, social media and AI agents plan to spend $2,893 on average, against $1,175 for those who do not. Deloitte says 39% of shoppers will use generative AI as their main tool for at least one holiday task, but only 16% would let it finish a purchase.
Value seekers still spend more
Deloitte counts 38% of shoppers as holiday value seekers, people who use five or more cost-saving habits such as promotions, rewards and private-label goods. They expect to spend 12% more than other shoppers. Saving tactics, in other words, are not the same as spending less.
Timing is part of it. About 22% of shoppers plan to start earlier than last year, and June promotions have already captured some purchases for 1 in 4 of them. Mass Market Retailers adds that 28% of shoppers’ budgets are likely to be gone by the end of October. Brian McCarthy, Deloitte’s retail strategy leader, says “holiday shoppers are not looking for a one-size-fits-all experience.”
Online carts take the largest share of retail budgets, at 55%. In-store buying stays strong for some categories, with 81% of shoppers preferring a store for food and beverage and 62% for pet items.
The American number is not the only one. Chain Store Age reports that a separate Deloitte Canada survey expects Canadian holiday spending to fall 5%, to CA$1,305 per person, the lowest since that survey began. Spending on entertaining is expected to drop 22% and on experiences 20%.
A 4% rise that matches the price rise
The jump from $1,595 to $1,654 is $59. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Oct. 14 that consumer prices rose 3.7% over the 12 months through September. Apply 3.7% to $1,595 and the result is about $1,654, so the survey’s increase is roughly what inflation alone would add to last year’s budget.
That is arithmetic, not a finding by Deloitte, and households do not buy the same basket in every category. Still, it frames the number differently. A family that plans to spend $1,654 may be planning to buy last year’s season at this year’s prices.
The step that stays open for any household is a plain one. Last year’s actual total, taken from card and bank statements, is the baseline. Add the 3.7% and the result shows what a repeat season costs before the first new gift is added.
Does $1,654 match what last December actually cost?
A household that plans around a survey average can find the budget gone before December, since 28% of shoppers’ holiday budgets are expected to be spent by the end of October. For people on a fixed income, the squeeze is often the heating and grocery bills that arrive on top of the gifts.
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This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by the editorial team.
Warren Cohen is a finance writer based in Phoenix, Arizona, covering personal finance topics including credit, banking, and beginner investing. He earned his degree in business administration from Arizona State University and began his career working in consumer finance, where he gained direct experience with lending and credit systems. He now writes for personal finance websites and fintech platforms, focusing on clear, practical content that helps readers make informed financial decisions.
