The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.53% today — the highest in a year — and markets are now pricing in a 30% chance of a rate hike by December
On May 14, 2025, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note settled at 4.53 percent, its highest close in roughly a year, according to the Treasury Department’s daily par yield curve. Within hours, federal-funds futures repriced sharply: the CME FedWatch tool showed an estimated 30 percent probability that the Federal Reserve would raise its policy rate at…