Massachusetts Question 5, which would change how the state’s tax-cap rebates are figured from July 2027, was trailing on Wednesday as votes were still being counted. MultiState’s results page lists the measure as pending with 47.98% voting yes. The campaign backing it conceded Wednesday morning, even though the Associated Press had not called the race.
Is Question 5 actually decided?
Not officially. WBUR reported that Question 5 remained too close to call according to the AP, while the campaign conceded defeat just before 7:45 a.m. CBS Boston said the question still had no projected winner as of Wednesday morning.
The group behind the measure, Taxpayers for an Affordable Massachusetts, said in a statement from spokesperson Chris Keohan that “Question 5 proposed modernizing the state’s nearly 40-year-old revenue growth limit,” GBH reported. On the other side, Harris Gruman, chair of Protect Massachusetts Future, said voters “rejected strict state revenue limits this year.” Results remain unofficial until certified.
What would the measure change about rebates?
Question 5 would rewrite the state’s tax-cap law, a 1986 voter-approved measure known as Chapter 62F. Under the Secretary of the Commonwealth’s summary written by the attorney general, state revenue in a year would be capped at the prior year’s net revenue, adjusted by the average three-year growth in Massachusetts wages and salaries. Revenue above that cap would be refunded to taxpayers the following year.
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Revenue from the surtax on incomes over $1 million would count toward both the total and the limit. A yes vote would take effect July 1, 2027, while a no vote would leave the current law as it is. The question itself contains no dollar amount for the cap or for rebates.
Boston.com explained that the current limit starts from the revenue collected in 1986 and rises each year with growth in Massachusetts wages and salaries, and it cannot fall from one year to the next. Question 5 would instead start each year from what the state actually collected the previous year, then apply the wage-and-salary growth factor. The 4% surtax on income over $1 million would not be repealed, only counted toward the limit.
In 1987, the excess of about $29.2 million went back to taxpayers as a credit on their tax returns. In fiscal 2022, collections exceeded the limit by about $2.94 billion, the largest refund in the law’s history. Tufts projects Question 5 would produce two to four times as many refunds and return two to seven times as much money to taxpayers.
How big would the rebate checks have been?
The size is where the estimates split. WBUR reported that Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis projected 8 to 9 rebates over 20 years, with refunds of a few hundred dollars in the early years and roughly $500 to $600 by the 2040s, averaging about $200 to $250 a year. Supporters estimated taxpayers would have received 24 rebates over the last 40 years under the proposed formula.
Jim Stergios, executive director of the Pioneer Institute, cited an average rebate of $700 and said the measure was meant to “provide modest help with affordability, without forcing cuts in state services.” The current law has triggered only twice, in 1987 and 2022, when the state returned about $3 billion in refund checks and direct deposits, WBUR reported.
What did opponents say it would cost the state?
Doug Howgate of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, which opposes the measure, warned of a “yo-yo” cycle of refunds followed by years without them. Opponents also pointed to the budget. Gov. Maura Healey’s budget office said in its analysis that the proposal would reduce money for the state budget, including local aid, and reduce deposits to the rainy day fund, which holds $8.2 billion. Opponents also estimated that if rebates had been issued multiple times over the last 40 years, state revenues would have lost $13 billion.
Phineas Baxandall of the Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center warned lawmakers the measure could be triggered after a recession, which would “impair the state’s ability to make investments” when they are most needed. The Pioneer Institute argued it would put “greater discipline” on Beacon Hill spending. Gruman said the answer to affordability problems is “adequate funding for state programs.”
Where does Chapter 62F stand with lawmakers?
The question arrived with the Legislature divided on the old law. House Speaker Ron Mariano said he would “love to be able to” get rid of Chapter 62F. Sen. Jason Lewis, a Democrat, has pushed legislation that would keep the law but limit the number of rebates. Boston.com reported that the Senate also passed a separate amendment requiring tax revenue to reach at least 7.5% of total statewide personal income before a refund could be triggered, and that a bill to repeal Chapter 62F entirely, H3087, was filed. Brian Moynihan, the Bank of America chief executive and chair, belongs to the Massachusetts Competitive Partnership, which funded the measure.
If the count holds, the current formula stays in place and any future rebate will be set by it, with the question of changing it left to lawmakers. If the count tightens further, nothing changes for taxpayers before July 1, 2027, the date the provisions would take effect. Questions 6 and 7 were also on the Massachusetts ballot, and MultiState lists Question 6, the Nature for All Fund, as passed with 60.8% yes and Question 7, on single-family homes on 5,000-square-foot lots, as pending at 49.41%.
Counting on a Massachusetts tax-cap rebate?
Tufts projected rebates averaging about $200 to $250 a year under Question 5, and with the measure trailing, any future rebate stays on the current formula’s timetable. A retiree’s actual bill is set by the income lines on the return, which a ballot count does not change.
Cut Your Retirement Tax Bill: 12 Moves covers how much of your Social Security is taxed, worked out on one worksheet, and your state’s rules, including the eight states that tax some Social Security. The turn is from a state rebate formula to the income lines that set a retiree’s own bill, and it puts the 2026 numbers on one page.
Get the retiree tax guide with the Social Security worksheet →
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
David M. Keller is a finance writer based in Columbus, Ohio, covering personal finance and consumer-focused economic topics. He earned his degree in journalism from Ohio University and began his career reporting on local business and economic trends for a regional media outlet. Since then, he has contributed to a variety of online publications, focusing on clear, practical coverage of topics such as cost of living, debt, and everyday financial decision-making.
