President Donald Trump signed a Defense Production Act determination on Oct. 22 that treats U.S. oil production, refining and fuel logistics as essential to national defense. It clears the way for federal purchases, purchase commitments and financial support for that industry. Regular gasoline, meanwhile, averaged $4.269 a gallon on Oct. 26, which is $1.23 more than a year earlier.
The memo is addressed to the Secretary of War and covers exploration and production, gathering and transmission pipelines, storage and marine terminals. It says U.S. industry cannot supply that capacity in time without presidential action, pointing to constrained financing, long lead times, permitting and infrastructure bottlenecks, and supply chain limits. It carries no dollar figure and does not mention what drivers pay at the pump.
That leaves a plain question for anyone who drives on a fixed income: does a defense finding about refineries and pipelines do anything for the price of a gallon this winter? Nothing in the text says it will. The order is about capacity, and capacity takes years to build, while the gasoline bill arrives every week.
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The order lets the Secretary buy, commit and finance
Under Section 303(a)(7) of the 1950 law, the memo waives the requirements of Section 303(a)(1) through (a)(6) so the government can move faster on expanding oil capacity. The Secretary is “authorized and directed to implement this determination,” including making purchases, commitments and financial instruments to get projects built. Any earlier memo, proclamation or executive order that conflicts with it is superseded to that extent.
The determination builds on Executive Order 14156, the January 2025 declaration of a national energy emergency, and warns that “without immediate Federal action, United States defense capabilities will remain vulnerable to disruption.” The Federal Register scheduled it for publication on Oct. 28 as Presidential Determination No. 2027-01.
An April version came first
No. An April 20 determination carries the same title, the same findings about financing and permitting, and the same waiver language, but it was addressed to the Secretary of Energy. The October version moves the assignment to the Secretary of War.
The October text names no projects, no dollar amounts and no timeline. It frames petroleum as a national-defense resource and leaves the specific purchases and commitments to the Secretary, so any effect on consumer fuel costs would come well after the signing, if it comes at all.
Pump prices sit $1.23 above last year
The Energy Information Administration’s weekly survey, released Oct. 27, put U.S. regular at $4.269 a gallon on Oct. 26, down 1.5 cents from $4.284 the week before. The year-ago change was up $1.234. Diesel was $6.352 a gallon, up 7.6 cents on the week and $2.634 above a year earlier.
For a driver filling a 15-gallon tank, that year-ago gap works out to about $18.50 more per fill-up. Prices also vary widely by region. The EIA lists California at $5.888, the highest of any state it tracks, and Texas at $3.632, the lowest. AAA’s daily tracker showed the national average for regular at $4.1837 on Oct. 31, against $3.0403 a year earlier. The two surveys use different methods and dates, which is why the figures differ slightly.
EIA’s forecast looks to 2027 for lower prices
The EIA’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Oct. 6, expects retail regular gasoline to average $3.91 a gallon across 2026 and $3.56 in 2027. It forecasts Brent crude at $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter, $14 higher than its September estimate. The agency assumes oil flows from the Middle East stay constrained through the end of the year.
AAA’s Oct. 29 weekly release found regular down 5 cents on the week to $4.22 a gallon, and said crude above $100 a barrel is limiting further declines at the pump. Aixa Diaz, AAA’s media relations manager, is the release’s listed contact.
EIA ties the expected 2027 decline to higher Middle East output and easing global fuel tightness, not to U.S. refining policy. It also reports that East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September.
Is a $1.23 jump in gas costs already in your budget?
A determination aimed at refineries and pipelines does not change what a gallon costs at the station this week. For households on Social Security or a pension, an extra $1.23 a gallon for gasoline, and $2.634 more for diesel, comes straight out of the monthly cash.
“Make Your Savings Pay You” is an 11-page guide to the cash behind that budget, not to the pump. It covers every dollar insured, even above $250,000 at one bank, and I bonds whose rate adjusts with inflation every six months, plus a worksheet for finding what your cash earns now on your statement in five minutes.
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This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
Warren Cohen is a finance writer based in Phoenix, Arizona, covering personal finance topics including credit, banking, and beginner investing. He earned his degree in business administration from Arizona State University and began his career working in consumer finance, where he gained direct experience with lending and credit systems. He now writes for personal finance websites and fintech platforms, focusing on clear, practical content that helps readers make informed financial decisions.
