A week ago, filling a 15-gallon tank cost the average American driver about $61. Today it costs roughly $67. The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline surged to $4.48 as of late May 2026, according to AAA, a 38-cent jump in just seven days. The automobile association’s warning was blunt: the summer driving season, which historically pushes fuel prices to their yearly peak, has not even started yet.
“We typically see gasoline prices climb through the Fourth of July, and this year that seasonal pressure is landing on top of a genuine supply shock,” AAA spokesperson Andrew Gross said in the organization’s latest fuel gauge update. The last time pump prices moved this fast was during the energy crisis of 2022, when the national average briefly topped $5.02 on June 14 of that year.
This time, the catalyst is a disruption to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s petroleum liquids, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. With crude benchmarks climbing and refiners already running on thin inventories, the pressure on household budgets is building weeks before families load up for summer road trips.
How the numbers break down
The EIA’s weekly retail gasoline price series confirms what drivers are seeing on station signs: prices have climbed sharply across all major regions over the past several weeks, with the most recent readings reflecting one of the steepest single-week increases since 2022.
The Bureau of Transportation Statistics has separately published regional fuel-price data through April 2026 that fills in the geographic picture. Drivers on the West Coast and in the Northeast are already paying well above the national average, with several metro areas north of $5 a gallon. Gulf Coast states remain cheaper, but even there, prices have moved decisively higher compared with March.
For a two-car household that fills up once a week per vehicle, the 38-cent increase translates to roughly $50 more per month in fuel costs alone. Put another way, that is the equivalent of an extra grocery run or two streaming subscriptions, absorbed entirely by the gas tank. And if prices keep rising into July, which AAA’s seasonal data suggests is the most likely path, the monthly hit will grow.
Why a waterway 7,000 miles away sets prices at your local pump
The Strait of Hormuz is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, but tankers carrying crude from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE must pass through it to reach global markets. When shipping through the strait is restricted, the supply of crude available to refiners worldwide tightens almost immediately, and the price of every barrel still in transit goes up.
The International Energy Agency flagged the risk months ago. Its March 2026 Oil Market Report warned that OECD commercial oil inventories were already below five-year averages, leaving little cushion if Hormuz flows were further disrupted. That scenario has now played out. Crude benchmarks have climbed as traders price in the possibility that restricted transit could last months rather than weeks, and those higher wholesale costs are being passed directly to American pumps.
Refiners have limited room to draw down their own stockpiles to offset lost seaborne shipments. The EIA notes on its gasoline and diesel page that its weekly averages and AAA’s daily snapshots use different sampling methods, which can produce small discrepancies on any given day. But the direction in both datasets is the same: up, and accelerating.
Seasonal forces stacking on top of a supply shock
Even without a geopolitical crisis, gasoline prices tend to rise between Memorial Day and mid-July. Two forces drive that pattern. First, Americans simply drive more during summer vacations, boosting demand. Second, EPA regulations require refineries to produce a more expensive summer-blend gasoline that reduces smog-forming emissions but costs more to manufacture.
Layering those seasonal pressures on top of a supply disruption creates conditions energy analysts rarely see outside of a crisis year. Refinery utilization rates heading into summer have not yet reached the levels needed to meet peak demand, and any unplanned maintenance or hurricane-related outages along the Gulf Coast, where roughly half of U.S. refining capacity sits, could tighten gasoline supply independently of what happens overseas.
There is also a lag between wholesale and retail prices that may mean the full effect of the Hormuz disruption has not yet reached station signs. Energy economists have long documented a pattern in which retailers raise prices quickly when their costs spike but lower them slowly when crude retreats. Researchers call this asymmetry “rockets and feathers,” a term popularized in a widely cited 2002 study by economists Severin Borenstein, A. Colin Cameron, and Richard Gilbert. If that dynamic holds this summer, drivers could feel the squeeze well after the underlying supply disruption eases.
What could change the trajectory
The biggest variable is the Strait of Hormuz itself. If diplomatic efforts restore normal shipping lanes quickly, crude prices could pull back and relieve some pressure at the pump within weeks. If the standoff deepens, the IEA has warned that global energy markets face prolonged strain, with knock-on effects for diesel and jet fuel as well.
Consumer behavior will also matter. In past price spikes, some households responded by carpooling, consolidating errands, or postponing road trips. But pent-up travel demand may make drivers less price-sensitive than usual, at least in the short term. AAA projected earlier this spring that summer travel volumes would remain near record levels regardless of fuel costs, a sign that many families are choosing to absorb the hit rather than cancel plans.
Broader economic conditions add another layer. A cooling labor market or slower wage growth could curb discretionary travel spending, easing demand. If the economy stays resilient and airfares remain elevated, more Americans may choose to drive long distances instead of fly, adding to gasoline consumption at exactly the wrong moment for pump prices.
One question that remains unanswered is whether the White House will consider tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, as it did during the 2022 price spike, or pursue other measures to bring relief. As of late May 2026, no such action has been announced, and the reserve’s inventory is significantly smaller than it was before the 2022 drawdown.
How today’s prices compare to the worst we have seen
At $4.48, the national average is still below the all-time record of $5.02 set on June 14, 2022. But the speed of the current increase, 38 cents in a single week, is unusual and suggests the market has not yet found a ceiling. A year ago, in late May 2025, the national average hovered around $3.60, according to AAA’s historical data. That means drivers are now paying about 24% more than they were at the same point last summer.
The forces pushing prices up are real, rooted in a verifiable supply disruption, and compounded by seasonal demand that has not yet peaked. For the tens of millions of Americans planning summer road trips, the cost of getting there is climbing with no clear end date. The data so far offers little reason to expect a quick reversal, and every reason to budget for a more expensive tank of gas through at least mid-July.
Warren Cohen is a finance writer based in Phoenix, Arizona, covering personal finance topics including credit, banking, and beginner investing. He earned his degree in business administration from Arizona State University and began his career working in consumer finance, where he gained direct experience with lending and credit systems. He now writes for personal finance websites and fintech platforms, focusing on clear, practical content that helps readers make informed financial decisions.
