Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group now expects 4.69 million total home sales in 2026, down from 4.75 million in 2025, according to its September 11 forecast. The group also raised its 2027 sales projection to 4.88 million and put the average 30-year mortgage rate at 6.5% for 2026, easing slightly from 6.6% in 2025 before climbing to 6.7% in 2027. The forecast covers both new and existing homes and is updated monthly as new data comes in.
What the forecast doesn’t price: A 4.69 million sales pace means more owners are staying put, without pricing the heating, cooling and home-repair help covered in The Senior Property Tax & Home-Cost Relief Kit. See the heating, cooling and home-repair help for staying put →
What Fannie Mae’s September Forecast Says
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group projected 4.69 million total home sales for 2026 in its September 11 housing forecast, down from an estimated 4.75 million in 2025. The group expects sales to rebound to 4.88 million in 2027. Within the 2026 total, the forecast splits out 630,000 new single-family sales and 4.06 million existing-home sales, reflecting a market still dominated by resales rather than new construction.
New Construction Is Falling Faster Than Resales
The forecast’s breakdown shows new single-family sales sliding from 679,000 in 2025 to 630,000 in 2026, a drop of roughly 7.2%, compared with existing-home sales easing only slightly, from 4.076 million to 4.062 million, a decline of about 0.3%. The uneven split means builders are absorbing most of the pullback the ESR Group is forecasting for 2026, while the much larger resale market is holding closer to its prior-year pace, a pattern consistent with current owners staying in place rather than actively listing.
The Mortgage-Rate Path Behind The Numbers
The forecast pairs its sales figures with a 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.5% in 2026, down slightly from 6.6% in 2025, before the group expects the rate to climb back to 6.7% in 2027. That modest dip is doing more work than the sales figure alone suggests: a rate near 6.5% is still high enough to keep many potential sellers locked into older, lower-rate mortgages, a dynamic that has suppressed housing turnover since rates first rose from their pandemic-era lows. A homeowner sitting on a mortgage from that lower-rate period faces a real cost to trade up or down, since replacing that loan with one at 6.5% or higher raises the monthly payment even on an equivalent-priced home, independent of anything happening to that owner’s income.
Home Prices Keep Rising, Just More Slowly
Fannie Mae’s home-price index in the same forecast shows values rising 2.3% in 2026, up slightly from 2.1% in 2025, before growth slows sharply to 1.0% in 2027. For an owner who bought years ago, that continued, if decelerating, appreciation means home equity keeps building even as the number of actual transactions declines, a split between paper wealth and market activity that the sales forecast alone does not capture. The 2027 slowdown to 1.0% growth, if it plays out as the ESR Group projects, would mark the slowest annual price gain in the three-year window the forecast covers, a signal that the group expects the market’s mortgage-rate-driven standoff between buyers and sellers to persist rather than resolve quickly in either direction.
The same 6.5% average rate lands differently depending on which side of a transaction a household sits on. A first-time buyer entering the market in 2026 is comparing that rate only against rent or against waiting, since there is no earlier, lower mortgage to protect. An existing owner considering a move is instead comparing 6.5% against whatever rate is already locked into a current loan, frequently a rate from years before the recent run-up in borrowing costs. That asymmetry helps explain why the forecast’s new-construction and existing-home figures move at such different speeds: a builder selling to a first-time buyer faces a different decision calculus than a resale market built on owners who already have a mortgage to compare against.
Why Fewer Sales Doesn’t Mean A Cooling Market
A drop from 4.75 million to 4.69 million total sales is a decline of roughly 1.3%, not a collapse, and Fannie Mae’s own 2027 rebound to 4.88 million suggests the group views 2026 as a plateau rather than the start of a longer slide. The relatively narrow band the ESR Group forecasts, with sales moving within about 4% of each other across three straight years, points to a market where the mortgage-rate lock-in effect is offsetting whatever demand a stabilizing rate might otherwise unlock.
What A Lower Sales Pace Means For Someone Staying Put
For an older homeowner who was never planning to sell in 2026 anyway, Fannie Mae’s forecast is less a signal to act than a confirmation that the broader market shares the same incentive to stay: with rates averaging 6.5% instead of the lower rates many current owners still hold, moving remains expensive relative to staying. That incentive to stay put converts a housing forecast into a household-budget question, since a home that isn’t being sold still carries its own tax bill, insurance premium and repair costs every year regardless of what the sales count does. For a retiree on a fixed income, that math cuts a specific way: the equity Fannie Mae’s price forecast says is still growing, at 2.3% for 2026, is only usable if the home is sold or borrowed against, while the property-tax bill on that same rising value keeps coming due every year the owner stays put.
The Ownership Costs A Slower Sales Market Doesn’t Pause
Fannie Mae’s forecast tracks how many homes change hands, not what happens to the ones that don’t. A homeowner who stays put through a slower sales year keeps paying property taxes, insurance and repair bills on the same schedule as before, regardless of whether the broader market moves 4.69 million homes or a different count entirely.
The Senior Property Tax & Home-Cost Relief Kit lays out an 11-page rundown of the circuit-breaker credit, five kinds of property-tax relief, and assistance with heating, cooling and repair costs for an owner who isn’t going anywhere soon.
Look up the property-tax relief programs that apply to a long-held home in The Senior Property Tax & Home-Cost Relief Kit.
This article was produced with AI assistance and checked against the primary sources linked above.
Warren Cohen is a finance writer based in Phoenix, Arizona, covering personal finance topics including credit, banking, and beginner investing. He earned his degree in business administration from Arizona State University and began his career working in consumer finance, where he gained direct experience with lending and credit systems. He now writes for personal finance websites and fintech platforms, focusing on clear, practical content that helps readers make informed financial decisions.
