Last Memorial Day, filling up the tank felt almost like a bargain. Gas prices had sunk to their lowest inflation-adjusted level since 2003, and some stations were flirting with sub-$3.00 gallons. Twelve months later, the pump tells a very different story.
With an estimated 45 million drivers set to hit U.S. highways over the long weekend, gasoline is averaging roughly $1.34 a gallon more than it did during the same period in 2025. That comparison is drawn from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly retail price series (series EMM_EPMRU_PTE_NUS_DPG), specifically the week ending May 26, 2025, measured against the most recent available week in May 2026. For a family topping off a 16-gallon tank, that works out to about $21 more per fill-up. Multiply the per-gallon increase across modeled holiday fuel-consumption volumes and the national fuel tab for this Memorial Day weekend comes to an estimated $1.85 billion more than last year’s. That figure is not one any single organization has published; it is derived from EIA pricing data and historical travel-volume patterns and should be treated as an estimate rather than an audited total.
How prices shifted so fast
Memorial Day 2025 was a genuine outlier. GasBuddy’s annual summer travel forecast, published in May 2025, pegged holiday gas prices at their cheapest in more than two decades after adjusting for inflation. That rock-bottom baseline is a big reason the year-over-year jump looks so stark now. No equivalent 2026 GasBuddy holiday forecast has been identified for this article; the 2025 report is cited solely to establish the price floor from which this year’s increase is measured.
Several forces have pushed prices higher since last summer. Tighter global crude supply, shifting refinery margins, and stronger-than-expected domestic fuel demand heading into the 2026 driving season have all played a role. As of late May 2026, West Texas Intermediate crude is trading near $74 a barrel and Brent crude near $78 a barrel, both well above the levels that prevailed a year ago and a key reason retail gasoline has climbed so sharply. (Those benchmark figures are approximate and based on publicly available futures data around the time of publication; readers should check current quotes for the latest.)
The $1.85 billion spending estimate is derived by applying the EIA’s per-gallon increase to estimated total gallons consumed over the holiday travel period, drawing on historical AAA travel-volume data. Different analysts weight the inputs differently, with some emphasizing long-haul interstate driving and others factoring in shorter local trips, but the direction is consistent: more drivers on the road at substantially higher prices adds up to a steep increase in total spending.
Where drivers will feel it most
The national average does not hit every state the same way. West Coast drivers, who already pay a premium because of stricter fuel-blend requirements and limited refinery capacity, are likely facing an even wider gap than $1.34 a gallon compared with last year. California, where the statewide average has historically run $1.00 or more above the national figure, routinely leads the country in pump prices, and that pattern has held into 2026. Oregon and Washington follow a similar trajectory. Gulf Coast and Midwest states, sitting closer to major refining hubs, tend to run below the national figure, though they have not escaped the broader upward trend.
For perspective, the national average still sits well below the all-time peak set in June 2022, when prices briefly topped $5.00 a gallon during the global energy shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the speed of the rebound from last year’s lows is enough to catch household budgets off guard, especially for families who mapped out summer plans based on 2025 pricing.
45 million drivers and counting
The 45-million-traveler estimate is rooted in historical AAA Memorial Day forecasts. In recent years AAA has consistently placed the holiday weekend’s driving population in that range; its 2025 Memorial Day travel forecast, for example, projected automobile travel holding steady even as gas prices fell. No publicly available 2026 AAA Memorial Day forecast has been identified as of this article’s publication date, so the 45 million figure should be understood as an approximation drawn from prior-year patterns rather than a confirmed 2026 count.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted in the firm’s May 2025 report that low fuel costs were “giving Americans an extra reason to hit the road.” With prices now sharply higher, the question is whether that enthusiasm carries forward. Travel economists have observed that demand around marquee holiday weekends tends to be resistant to price swings: families absorb higher fuel costs by trimming spending on dining, lodging, or entertainment rather than scrapping the trip altogether. Post-holiday traffic counts and credit-card spending data will show whether 2026 travelers shortened their trips, chose closer destinations, or simply paid more and drove the same distances they always do.
What could push prices higher or lower by July Fourth
Several wildcards sit between now and the next big travel weekend. Unexpected refinery outages, a busy Atlantic hurricane season threatening Gulf Coast production, or shifts in OPEC+ output targets could all add upward pressure. On the other side, a slowdown in economic activity or a surprise jump in domestic crude production could pull prices back.
GasBuddy’s 2025 report noted the possibility of sub-$3.00 days last summer, but that forecast relied on crude benchmarks and refinery margins that no longer apply. Drivers hoping for similar relief in 2026 would need a meaningful reversal in global oil market conditions, and the current trajectory of WTI and Brent prices does not suggest one is imminent.
Stretching your fuel budget across a 2026 road trip
Families already committed to driving can still blunt the impact. Checking prices along the route with apps like GasBuddy before departure often reveals station-to-station differences of 30 cents a gallon or more, especially near highway exits versus a few blocks into town. Filling up before entering high-price corridors, such as rural interstates or tourist-heavy areas, helps avoid captive-audience markups. In 2026, with the gap between cheap and expensive stations wider than it was a year ago, pre-trip price scouting matters more than usual.
A few other moves that cost nothing: maintaining proper tire pressure (underinflated tires reduce fuel economy by roughly 0.2% for every 1 psi drop below the recommended level, according to the U.S. Department of Energy), removing unnecessary cargo weight from the trunk, and using cruise control on flat highways. None of these will erase a $1.34-per-gallon increase, but stacking small efficiencies across a 500-mile round trip can save $15 to $25, enough to cover a meal on the road.
For households still weighing whether to drive or fly, the calculus depends on group size. A family of four splitting gas in one car almost always beats four airline tickets, even at today’s prices. Solo travelers or couples may find that discount airfares, booked early, compete more closely with the combined cost of fuel, tolls, and vehicle wear.
Whatever mode of travel wins out, the math for this Memorial Day weekend is unambiguous: budget for the price you will actually see on the pump in late May 2026, not the price you remember from last year. That single adjustment is the easiest way to keep the holiday from starting with sticker shock at the first gas station.
Warren Cohen is a finance writer based in Phoenix, Arizona, covering personal finance topics including credit, banking, and beginner investing. He earned his degree in business administration from Arizona State University and began his career working in consumer finance, where he gained direct experience with lending and credit systems. He now writes for personal finance websites and fintech platforms, focusing on clear, practical content that helps readers make informed financial decisions.
