Health insurers selling ACA Marketplace plans are asking state regulators to approve a median premium increase of about 14 percent for 2027, according to a preliminary analysis of the rate filings insurers were required to submit this summer. If regulators approve the requests largely as filed, it would mark a second straight year of double-digit increases, arriving just as the extra financial help that shielded many buyers from the first round of increases has expired. For people who buy their own coverage because they are retired or self-employed and not yet old enough for Medicare, the numbers matter well before any bill actually changes.
What Insurers Are Actually Asking For
According to a KFF analysis of preliminary rate filings published July 8, 2026, the median proposed increase for 2027 stands at about 14 percent across the 77 Marketplace insurers in 16 states and Washington, D.C. that had filed by that point. Most of those insurers are requesting increases between 10 percent and 20 percent, and 20 of them are asking for more than 20 percent. July 15 was the deadline for insurers to submit their proposed 2027 premiums to state regulators, and the filings represent what companies are asking for, not what regulators will ultimately approve — state insurance departments can, and often do, negotiate lower final rates before open enrollment begins on November 1.
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The Subsidy Cliff Behind the Numbers
Insurers cite several reasons for the proposed increases, but the loss of the ACA’s enhanced premium tax credits looms largest. Those enhanced credits, which had lowered what many buyers actually paid out of pocket, expired at the end of 2025. KFF’s analysis found that the expiration already drove a 58 percent average increase in out-of-pocket premiums in 2026, along with deductibles running about $1,000 higher per person. Most enrollees are still shielded to some degree because they qualify for the ACA’s original, smaller subsidy, but people with incomes at or above 400 percent of the federal poverty level — $62,600 for a single person in 2026 — lost their subsidy entirely and are facing the full increase.
A Shrinking, Sicker Risk Pool
The loss of subsidies for higher earners had a second-order effect insurers are now pricing into 2027: many of the healthier people who left the Marketplace in 2026 rather than pay full price took their lower medical costs with them, leaving a smaller pool of remaining enrollees who are somewhat sicker and more expensive to cover on average. Insurers estimate that this shift in the risk pool pushed 2026 premiums up by roughly four percentage points on its own, and they expect a similar four-point effect in 2027. On top of that, KFF’s analysis found that the underlying cost of medical care and prescription drugs — including GLP-1 medications and other specialty drugs — is projected to rise about 10 percent for 2027, above the roughly 8 percent average of recent years.
A Broader Look at All 50 States Points the Same Direction
The 14 percent figure reflects only the 16 states and D.C. that had filed by early July, but a more complete look tells a similar story. KFF’s Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker analysis, which the July 8 release cites as a companion to the preliminary state-level numbers, digs into the specific cost drivers behind the filings rather than just the headline percentage, breaking out how much of the increase traces to medical cost growth, the subsidy cliff, and the shrinking risk pool separately. That level of detail matters for regulators reviewing individual filings, since a request justified mostly by one-time risk-pool effects is treated differently in review than one driven by a genuine jump in underlying medical costs.
Why Buyers in Their 50s and Early 60s Feel It Most
The ACA allows insurers to charge older enrollees up to three times what they charge the youngest adults, so a given percentage increase translates into a larger dollar increase for someone in their late 50s or early 60s than for a 25-year-old buying the same plan. That group also includes many people who retired early, left a job that offered coverage, or are self-employed and rely on the Marketplace as their only option until Medicare eligibility begins at 65. If the preliminary numbers hold, KFF’s analysis found that typical Marketplace premiums would climb by more than a third between 2025 and 2027 — a two-year run of increases layered directly on top of the subsidy changes already in effect.
What Happens Between Now and Open Enrollment
The 14 percent figure is a snapshot from mid-2026, based on the states that had filed by the time KFF published its analysis; a broader look at filings from all 50 states and D.C. can shift the median as more insurers report in. State regulators still have to review and approve final 2027 rates before insurers can post them for shoppers, and that review process is where some of the highest requests, including the more than 20 percent asks, tend to get trimmed. The final, approved premiums will be visible to consumers once open enrollment opens on November 1, giving buyers roughly six weeks to compare plans against the rate they are already paying in 2026.
What Falls Through the Cracks
Separately, a rising Marketplace premium is not the only cost squeezing older households right now. State unclaimed property, LIHEAP energy help, and Medicare Savings Programs each hold real assistance, but none of them notify anyone automatically — every one of them requires an application.
The Benefits Checklist walks through all 11 covered programs, the 2026 income limits, and a printable tracker for keeping applications straight.
Compare the relevant programs in The Benefits Checklist.
This article was written with the assistance of AI and reviewed for accuracy before publication.
David M. Keller is a finance writer based in Columbus, Ohio, covering personal finance and consumer-focused economic topics. He earned his degree in journalism from Ohio University and began his career reporting on local business and economic trends for a regional media outlet. Since then, he has contributed to a variety of online publications, focusing on clear, practical coverage of topics such as cost of living, debt, and everyday financial decision-making.
