The National Association of Realtors says September closed out the weakest stretch of the year for home sales. “August and September marked the two slowest months for home sales this year,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in the group’s existing-home sales report. September closings ran at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 3.99 million homes, up 1.5% from August but down 2.2% from a year earlier.
For a homeowner thinking about selling, the report is a mixed signal. Fewer buyers are closing, which usually means a longer wait and more negotiation. At the same time, prices are still higher than a year ago, so the people who do sell are not taking a loss on average.
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What does a 3.99 million pace actually mean?
NAR’s figure is not a count of September sales. It takes that month’s closings, adjusts them for the season and projects them over 12 months, so 3.99 million is the pace at which homes would change hands if September’s rate held for a full year. The small monthly gain still left sales below the level of September 2025.
The median existing-home price was $417,500, up 1.3% from $412,300 a year earlier, NAR said. First-time buyers made up 31% of sales, up from 30% in August and a year earlier. Cash purchases were 27% of transactions, unchanged from August but down from 30% a year earlier.
The cash share matters because buyers who do not need a mortgage are not affected by the rate. As that share slips, more of the market depends on borrowers who must qualify at today’s rates.
Where are sales weakest?
The regions moved in different directions. The South, the largest market, ran at 1.86 million with a gain of 2.8% from August, while the West also rose 2.8% to 730,000. The Northeast slipped 2.1% to 470,000, and the Midwest was unchanged at 930,000.
From a year earlier, every region was lower. The West fell the most, down 5.2%, followed by the Northeast at 4.1%, the Midwest at 2.1% and the South at 0.5%. Median prices told a different story, with the Northeast up 4.7% to $523,600 and the West down 0.3% to $613,600.
Who has the upper hand now, buyers or sellers?
Inventory reached 1.60 million homes for sale, up 1.9% from August and 4.6% from September 2025. That equals 4.8 months of supply, unchanged from August and up from 4.5 months a year ago. Months of supply measures how long it would take to sell every home now on the market at the current pace of sales, so a higher number points toward a buyer’s market.
Yun said, “Higher inventory and lengthening days on market give buyers improved negotiating power.” He also said, “Home sellers need to be realistic about local market conditions,” adding that this could require price discounts and other incentives. For a retiree planning to sell and move to a smaller home, that is a direct warning about asking prices.
The median price still rose 1.3% over the year, so sellers are not facing a broad price collapse. The pressure shows up instead in how long a home sits and in the concessions a buyer can win, such as repair credits or help with closing costs.
Have mortgage rates helped since NAR’s report?
Yun’s report, released Oct. 13, noted that “further increases in mortgage rates in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify to purchase a home.” Since then rates have come back down somewhat. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.18% on Nov. 5, down from 7.24% the week before and from a peak of about 7.4% in early October, the Associated Press reported.
Even so, the rate was 6.22% a year ago, and lower rates have not yet brought buyers back. The AP described U.S. home sales as stalled this year, with sales of previously occupied homes essentially flat last year at a 30-year low. Pending home sales fell 10.5% from a year earlier, the steepest annual drop in three years, while new listings slipped 7.5% as sellers pulled back, Mortgage Professional America reported.
Zillow senior economist Kara Ng told the outlet that whether the forces keeping bond yields high will ease is uncertain, and Zillow expects mortgage rates to stay above 7% through the rest of 2026 and into mid-2027. That outlook suggests the slow pace Yun described could last well into next year.
What should a homeowner do with this?
A market with more homes for sale and fewer buyers rewards sellers who price their homes realistically, and it gives buyers the room to ask for repairs and credits. Anyone deciding whether to sell this winter or hold off will find the local numbers matter more than the national ones.
The 3.99 million pace also hints at timing. The report covers closings, which reflect contracts signed a month or two earlier, so the effect of the recent drop in mortgage rates will not show up until later releases.
Thinking of selling or borrowing against your house in a market this slow?
With sales at 3.99 million and buyers holding more negotiating power, a homeowner who sells without a plan can give up a large share of the profit to taxes or to price cuts. One who borrows against the house without comparing the options can lock in a rate above 7%.
Cut Your House Costs is an 11-page guide that includes home equity options compared, from a HELOC to a reverse mortgage, and a lower home insurance bill by shopping and asking for every discount. It also includes a home-cost audit worksheet and a section on selling without the tax, up to $250,000 of profit or $500,000 for a couple.
Get the guide that compares home equity options and audits what your house costs →
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
Warren Cohen is a finance writer based in Phoenix, Arizona, covering personal finance topics including credit, banking, and beginner investing. He earned his degree in business administration from Arizona State University and began his career working in consumer finance, where he gained direct experience with lending and credit systems. He now writes for personal finance websites and fintech platforms, focusing on clear, practical content that helps readers make informed financial decisions.
