“While home prices continued to decline in real terms in July 2026, marking the 14th consecutive month of real declines, slightly lower inflation and stronger nominal home price appreciation helped narrow the gap,” said Rebecca Kaufman, Associate Director of Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in the index provider’s September 29 release. Home prices have therefore now fallen in real terms for 14 straight months, even as the dollar price of the average house has kept inching up.
The distinction matters most to older Americans, whose largest asset is often the house they live in. A home that rises 1.9 percent in a year while consumer prices rise 3.4 percent has not lost dollars, but it has lost ground against everything else a retiree buys.
1.9 percent against 3.4 percent in July
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose 1.9 percent over the twelve months to July 2026, according to the index release. Consumer prices rose 3.4 percent over the same stretch, roughly 1.5 percentage points above the home price gain. “Real” here means adjusted for that inflation, and the release describes July as the 14th consecutive month in which the adjusted figure was negative.
The gap is narrowing rather than widening, which is the point of Kaufman’s comment: slightly lower inflation and a stronger nominal gain both reduced it. The two broader composites show the range around the national figure. The 10-City Composite gained 3.4 percent over the year and the 20-City Composite 2.5 percent, so the 10-City index is the one that matched July inflation exactly.
Metro areas diverged more sharply. Among the 20 cities, Chicago led with a 6.9 percent annual gain, while Seattle was the weakest at a 1.6 percent decline. A homeowner in Chicago has therefore seen prices outrun inflation by a wide margin, while one in Seattle has seen a nominal loss on top of the inflation drag.
What 1.5 points looks like on a $400,000 house
Scaled to a hypothetical $400,000 home that tracked the national index, a 1.9 percent gain adds $7,600 in a year. Keeping pace with 3.4 percent inflation would have required $13,600, a shortfall of $6,000 in purchasing power. The figures are illustrative arithmetic on round numbers, not a valuation of any particular house, and the national index describes a broad average of repeat sales rather than any single property.
The arithmetic also does not describe a cash loss. A homeowner who sold in July 2026 would, on the national average, have received a price 1.9 percent above a year before. The real decline is a statement about what that price buys compared with the cost of other goods, which is how it reaches a retiree: through the budget the sale proceeds or the home equity are meant to support.
Housing equity makes up most of some older households’ wealth
Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies documents how heavily older owners rely on the house. In Housing America’s Older Adults 2023, the center reports home equity at 42 percent of total wealth for older White homeowners, with median equity of $251,000, and 51 percent for older Black homeowners, with median equity of $123,000. For older Hispanic homeowners the share was 74 percent, with median equity of $200,000, and for Asian, other and multiracial homeowners it was 72 percent, with $270,000.
Those are 2022 figures and predate the 14-month stretch, so they show the weight of the asset rather than what it has lost. Their implication is narrower than it may sound: for the households where equity is three-quarters of wealth, a persistent gap between home price growth and inflation is a gap in most of the balance sheet.
What a real decline does not decide
The national index measures a broad average and shows a nominal gain for July. It does not say that individual homes sold for less than their owners paid, and it does not predict whether the gap will close. Kaufman’s remark that the gap has narrowed is the only direction of travel the release states.
Two practical readings follow from the sources, and no more. First, a retiree planning to draw on home equity, by selling or downsizing, is working with a nominal sale price that has risen more slowly than the cost of living. Second, the answer depends heavily on location: a 6.9 percent gain and a 1.6 percent decline sit in the same national report.
The index release is dated September 29, covers July 2026, and describes the 14th consecutive month of real declines in the words of S&P Dow Jones Indices. The next monthly report will say whether the count reaches 15.
Homeownership costs that sit outside the sale price
The Senior Property Tax & Home-Cost Relief Kit is meant for older homeowners and renters who want a plain account of the programs that reduce what it costs to stay in a home: property-tax exemptions, freezes and credits, and help with heating, cooling and repairs. These programs are applied for one at a time, and each has its own filing window.
The Senior Property Tax & Home-Cost Relief Kit includes a guide to heating, cooling and home-repair help along with the circuit-breaker credit that includes renters.
See the home-cost help available to older homeowners and renters →
This article was drafted with AI assistance from the cited sources and checked against them before publication.
David M. Keller is a finance writer based in Columbus, Ohio, covering personal finance and consumer-focused economic topics. He earned his degree in journalism from Ohio University and began his career reporting on local business and economic trends for a regional media outlet. Since then, he has contributed to a variety of online publications, focusing on clear, practical coverage of topics such as cost of living, debt, and everyday financial decision-making.
